2024 Golden Globe Nomination Predictions

The 2024 Golden Globes are meant to be a moment of rebirth for the once-disgraced awards body. The annual awards have fallen into relative obscurity these past few years. The 2022 ceremony was not televised, and last year’s NBC broadcast was watched by so few people that it might as well have been the embodiment of the “if a tree falls in the forest…” argument. Now the HFPA is no more, with many of the more troublesome members expelled and replaced with a bevy of fresh faces. The show also has a new broadcasting partner in CBS, which lends some credibility and a stable viewership floor. Nothing about this is pretty, or even good, but it’s not as bad as it could have been.

We should still expect some Globes-like nominations come Monday morning. But I doubt we’ll get anything as wild as we’ve gotten in the past like The Tourist or Sia’s Music. More members bring the consensus closer to the middle, favoring movies with already established Oscar chances. There’s also the fact that there will be more nominees as the amount of nominations per category has been raised from five to six.

Best Motion Picture - Drama

1. Oppenheimer

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Maestro

4. Anatomy of a Fall

5. Past Lives

6. All of Us Strangers

   
   

There’s nothing too surprising about the top three picks, with things getting a little trickier the further down you go. Anatomy of a Fall and Past Lives seem safe on account of their popularity and acclaim. The last slot is between Saltburn and All of Us Strangers. Emerald Fennell’s film is more flashy but less acclaimed (although that’s never been a big hurdle with this group), making Andrew Haigh’s quiet drama a nice candidate for a surprise nomination.

Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy

1. Poor Things

2. The Holdovers

3. American Fiction

4. Barbie

5. The Color Purple

6. May December

   
   

This might be one of the best editions of this category over the past decade, with most years featuring at least one nominee who got in due to low competition. All of these movies could be eventual Best Picture nominees, with Air being the biggest alternate. The Color Purple is looking vulnerable after its absence at both NBR and AFI this week, and May December is an odd-feeling nominee.

Best Director

1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)

2. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)

4. Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)

5. Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)

6. Greta Gerwig (Barbie)

   
   

The Globes tend to be more populist with their picks here than the Oscars, with last year's crop including both Baz Luhrmann (Elvis) and James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water). The only foreign language directors to be nominated over the past decade are Bong Joon-ho (Parasite) and Alfonso Cuarón (Roma), with the latter not being a surprise considering he won this category in 2013. That makes it harder to predict arthouse/international contenders like Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) and Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall). Subbing in for them are big studio contenders Bradley Cooper and Greta Gerwig.

Best Screenplay

1. Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan

2. Poor Things (Tony McNamara)

3. The Holdovers (David Hemingson)

4. American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (Martin Scorsese & Eric Roth)

6. Past Lives (Celine Song)

   
   

This is by far the hardest category to predict as both original and adapted screenplays are competing in the same category. This combination means some really strong contenders are going to be snubbed. There are no hard stats or evidence to support which films will get in or be snubbed. I could just as likely see Killers of the Flower Moon being left off and Barbie or May December taking its place. I’d happily take ⅚ correct and then stress later about predicting an eventual winner.

Best Lead Actor - Drama

1. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)

2. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)

4. Colman Domingo (Rustin)

5. Barry Keoghan (Saltburn)

6. Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)

   
   

This category is made all the more easier as the outsiders in Joaquin Phoenix (Napoleon) and Adam Driver (Ferrari) feel quite quite distant. They’re both large performances from actors who have been nominated before, but their movies don’t offer the same support as the other contenders. The most interesting thing here is who will take the trophy between Cooper and Murphy.

Best Lead Actress - Drama

1. Carey Mulligan (Maestro)

2. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)

3. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)

4. Annette Bening (Nyad)

5. Greta Lee (Past Lives)

6. Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)

   
   

The Golden Globes feels like the ideal spot for Annette Bening to finally start her campaign. Greta Lee fits the overall theme of Past Lives in that every nomination is a victory for that film. Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla) seems solid enough but could be overtaken by Globes legend Helen Mirren (16 nominations since 1997!) for Golda, or maybe Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor for Origin. The Globes have been the most receptive to Ava DuVernay over the years, so it’s not outside of the realm of possibilities for her film to get at least one nomination.

Best Lead Actor - Musical or Comedy

1. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)

2. Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

3. Timothee Chalamet (Wonka)

4. Matt Damon (Air)

5. Gael García Bernal (Cassandro)

6. Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario)

   
   

Let’s be honest here, it’s Giamatti and Wright and a bunch of also-rans. Gael García Bernal is well-liked by this group, who gave him a rather surprise win for Mozart in the Jungle a few years ago. There is also the fact that, while Bernal and Nicolas Cage are big stars, their films are quite small. But then you look down the list of possible alternates and it’s pretty thin, with maybe Jamie Foxx (The Burial) being the upset pick.

Best Lead Actress - Musical or Comedy

1. Emma Stone (Poor Things)

2. Margot Robbie (Barbie)

3. Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple)

4. Natalie Portman (May December)

5. Julia Louis-Dreyfus (You Hurt My Feelings)

6. Jennifer Lawrence (No Hard Feelings)

   
   

There’s nothing too shocking here. I wouldn’t recommend predicting it, but keep an eye out for Emily Blunt in Pain Hustlers. Her supporting performance in Oppenheimer might not be enough for this group, who have nominated her six times. Just as heavily nominated over the years are Julia Louis-Dreyfus and Jennifer Lawrence, who actually appeared in movies that made a dent in the cinematic culture this year.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)

2. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)

3. Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)

4. Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

5. Charles Melton (May December)

6. Willem Dafoe (Poor Things)

   
   

There’s been no indication as of yet to stray from the six contenders most in line for the Oscar. We could get a surprise nomination like Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers) or Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry), which would be quite the treat. Or maybe even Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) or Peter Sarsgaard (Memory)?

Best Supporting Actress

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

2. Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)

3. Jodie Foster (Nyad)

4. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)

5. Julianne Moore (May December)

6. Viola Davis (Air)

   
   

Things are a little crazier in this supporting acting category, with me going a little more out on a limb with Viola Davis (Air). It’s not a totally far-fetched prediction considering this group’s love for her. That’s actually the biggest reason I’m picking her over other contenders like America Ferrera (Barbie) and Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple). We shouldn’t have to worry about any of the top five predicted nominees.

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Anatomy of a Fall (France)

2. The Zone of Interest (UK)

3. The Taste of Things (France)

4. Society of the Snow (Spain)

5. Perfect Days (Japan)

6. Fallen Leaves (Finland)

   
   

Because there are no restrictions on the number of submissions per country, this will be one of the few places we’ll likely see both France’s Anatomy of a Fall and The Taste of Things (the latter was selected by the country to compete for the Oscar). We could also see multiple Japanese films between Perfect Days, Monster, and The Boy and the Heron. 

Best Animated Feature Film

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2. The Boy and the Heron

3. Elemental

4. Chicken-Run: Dawn of the Nugget

5. Nimona

6. Robot Dreams

   
   

The more popular (and well-acclaimed, of course) movies will be surefire nominees. What this group has excelled at doing over the years is nominating lesser-known international titles. Past examples include Inu-Oh, Loving Vincent, and My Life as a Zucchini. Neon’s Robot Dreams is the perfect candidate to fill that potential spot this year. There’s also The Peasants as well.

Best Original Score

1. Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)

3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Daniel Pemberton)

4. Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix)

5. The Boy and the Heron (Joe Hisaishi)

6. The Zone of Interest (Mica Levi)

   
   

Daniel Pemberton is in the same club as Emily Blunt where they’ve received numerous Globe nominations and little to no Oscar love. It’ll be no surprise here to see Pemberton get in for his Across the Spider-Verse score. The rest of the nominees will be potential first-timers, which opens the door for 27-time nominee John Williams (Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny) to crash the party.

Best Original Song

1. What Was I Made For? (Barbie)

2. Keep It Movin’ (The Color Purple)

3. I’m Just Ken (Barbie)

4. This Wish (Wish)

5. Road to Freedom (Rustin)

6. Peaches (The Super Mario Bros. Movie)

   
   

There are three things this group loves: (1) Songs from musicals, (2) songs from animated movies, and (3) songs from biopics. We’ve got all of those bases covered here, with the added bonus of a threatening Diane Warren song from 80 for Brady. I’m snubbing her at my own peril.

Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

1. Oppenheimer

2. Barbie

3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

5. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

6. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

7. John Wick: Chapter 4

8. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

   
   

We might as well call this the ‘Barbenheimer’ Award this year. And with it being a new category, there are no past nominees/winners to off of. You might as well go down the box office chart this year and predict each film that also received mostly good or better reviews.