Awards Update: The Eye of the Hurricane

Welcome to an ongoing series where I cover the 2024/2025 awards season. On a regular basis, I will update my Oscar predictions, taking into account the new information that has been received since the last update. Full predictions in every category can be found on the Home and Awards page.

We're in the eye of the hurricane now; after the flurry of the fall and regional festivals, and before the onslaught of guild and critics awards that will commence in December. Granted, we've still got some awards buzz in the form of the Gotham Awards, and some rumors/reactions from screenings for upcoming titles. It's not much when you put it in the context of the whole season, but it's definitely part of the process that gets the snowball rolling down the hill.

The Gothams are an esoteric bunch with their tiny and segregated nominating committees, and now unwritten rule that all eligible films must have some sort of independent quality to them. Can we say that Challengers is firmly an Oscar contender because the five-person nominating committee put it in the Best Feature Category (and nowhere else)? No. But we can always glean a few things from this list, such as the fact that Anora and Nickel Boys continue to be the critics' favorites that they were during their respective festival runs. Those two films, along with The Brutalist, are the ones I expect to get the most love from the top critics groups like NYFCC, LAFCA, and NSFC. Anora will be especially strong if it continues the outstanding box office run it's been on. Nickel Boys and The Brutalist don't release until December, so they'll need all the love they can get to boost their financial prospects when it comes time for the Oscars to weigh in.

There were also nominations given to films like A Different Man, I Saw the TV Glow, and Good One. They'll likely repeat some level of that success at the Independent Spirit Awards and a critics group here and there, but this will likely be the end of the road for them.

Moving from the little to the big fish, both Wicked and Gladiator II ("Glicked" if you're tuned into the forced marketing campaign) have been seen by a wide enough sample of people for us to make some assumptions. The reactions to Wicked have been almost all glowing, with many saying that it's much better than they expected. The combination of several craft nominations (with possible wins), good enough critic scores, a big box office haul, and fervent fan support have convinced me to slot it into my predicted Best Picture lineup. We're also in a year that's leaning very indie, especially when you compare it to the behemoths that lined the Best Picture category the past two years. I think there's a want by people and voters to get another blockbuster in along with Dune: Part Two.

Gladiator II could very well be that additional big player instead of Wicked, although the reactions haven't been as enthusiastic and Ridley Scott isn't exactly an Oscar-favorite. Plenty of craft nominations will be in order, and a strong box office may let it sneak its way into the final Best Picture slot. At the moment I'm predicting that it will follow a nearly identical path to Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, another sequel that had the daunting task of following--up an unexpected Oscar juggernaut. Denzel Washington will once again be an Oscar contender, and he could win one of the televised precursor awards.

One film that didn't fare so well from reactions is Steve McQueen's Blitz. I was extremely high on the film going into this season, the combination of McQueen's visceral filmmaking and the classical story being undeniably potent. I liked the film when I watched it at this year's Twin Cities Film Fest, although there's a lingering feeling that it could have been so much better. That seems to be a common opinion and is why I've considerably scaled back its prospects. I still think Apple can use its heavy hand to keep it in the race, but it'll be difficult to sustain that needed level of momentum when everyone walks away from the film with a half-hearted shrug. The BAFTAs might be the place where it gets a new lease on life or dies with a whimper.

Even though I've just spent three paragraphs using reactions to influence my predictions, I won't be doing the same for Emilia Pérez. There's usually one film per year that is met with disdain amongst the social media crowd once it becomes publicly available. Maestro was that last year, and Don't Look Up two years before that. It's the Netflix special at this point, and we need to learn that the echo chamber of social media doesn't reflect the industry's opinion. The film has been successful at every festival stop it's made, and the cast has been warmly received. Don't be surprised if it ends up being our nomination leader, especially as it has the benefit of multiple original songs and a virtually guaranteed slot in Best International Feature as France's selection.

A Complete Unknown and Nosferatu remain as the only contenders that have gone unseen so far. I'm still holding strong on James Mangold's Bob Dylan biopic, and less so on Robert Eggers' adaptation of the famed Gothic tale of vampirism. Things could turn out the opposite, which I would be totally supportive of as long as the quality is there.