2023 Oscar Predictions Update: NYFF and LFF Solidify the Race

"Till" & "She Said" both premiered at New York Film Festival

Welcome to an ongoing series where I cover the 2022/2023 Oscar season. On a biweekly basis on Tuesdays, I will update my Oscar predictions, taking into account the new information that has been received since the last update.

The fall festival portion of the season has concluded with the New York and London Film Festivals. We’ve had many winners (The Banshees of Inisherin) and losers (The Son) over the past six weeks, and now we’ve gotten word on three potentially big contenders in Till, She Said, and Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio.

Chinonye Chukwu’s Till world premiered as a Spotlight Selection at NYFF and has solidified Danielle Deadwyler’s status as a top-tier contender in Lead Actress. There isn’t a single review, a large majority of them positive, that doesn’t describe her performance as career-defining work. The rest of the movie has garnered politely reserved marks, keeping it out of other categories at the moment. A push for Adapted Screenplay could happen considering the weakness of the field.

One film that will definitely find itself within the Adapted Screenplay bunch is She Said, another Spotlight Selection by NYFF. Reviews are a bit scarce and the Spotlight comparisons are inevitable as Maria Schrader directs the true story about the New York Times investigation into Harvey Weinstein. The timeliness of the material will be either a help or a hindrance to the film’s Best Picture potential, but I have it in at the moment based on the fact it’s locked for Adapted Screenplay and could factor into other categories such as Original Score and Supporting Actress for Carey Mulligan.

Finally, we have Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio, which world premiered at the London Film Festival and will make its domestic debut at the AFI Festival in November. Reviews are mostly positive for the film, keeping its status as the frontrunner in Animated Feature intact.

Along with Pinocchio, Netflix got another gust of wind in their sails this past week by reaching an agreement with AMC, Regal Cinemas, and Cinemark to play Rian Johnson’s Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery in over 600 theaters for the week of November 23-29. Playing that Thanksgiving weekend will give the film a healthy boost before it drops on the streaming platform on December 23. Variety reports that Netflix is committed to theatrical marketing for the film, which also signifies that this will be their lead horse throughout the season. The original film topped out at only an Original Screenplay nomination, but the great reviews and marketing might behind this sequel give me confidence it will crack into Best Picture.

Speaking of theaters, two contenders in TÁR and Triangle of Sadness just started their platform releases before they’ll eventually expand wider. Todd Field’s film scored the second biggest per-theater average (PTA) of the year as it pulled in $160,000 from four locations across New York and Los Angeles (Everything Everywhere All at Once reigns supreme with a $50,000 PTA back in March). The film will take the tried-and-true strategy of a slow rollout over several weeks, with a larger expansion planned for the weekend of October 21. So far all signs point toward it working out, with several above-the-line nominations likely. Ruben Östlund’s Palme d’Or winning comedy secured a healthy $20,000 PTA across 10 locations. It’s a better turnout than most past Cannes winners, but it remains to be seen if the film can continue the momentum for the next several weeks. Other festival films that will test out the limited-release waters will be Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin, Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans, and Sarah Polley’s Women Talking.

While it isn’t a festival film, Damien Chazelle’s Babylon will open limited on Christmas before expanding nationwide early in the new year. The rumors of Margot Robbie being moved to Supporting Actress are persistent, so much so that I’m considering moving her there myself. But I’ll hold off until we have official confirmation. There’s also been the growing popularity of the Brad Pitt allegations of domestic abuse against Angelina Jolie, which will surely hurt his Supporting Actor chances. No one has seen the film yet, so things are still fluid.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in every category (except for the shorts and Best Original Song) for October 18, 2022. The next update will come on November 01.

Best Picture

1. The Fabelmans

2. Women Talking

3. Babylon

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once

5. The Banshees of Inisherin

6. Top Gun: Maverick

7. TÁR

8. She Said ↑

9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery ↑

10. The Whale ↓

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11. Triangle of Sadness ↓

12. All Quiet on the Western Front ↓

Best Director

1. Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

2. Damien Chazelle (Babylon)

3. Todd Field (TÁR)

4. Sarah Polley (Women Talking)

5. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) ↑

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6. Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once) ↓

7. Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh) ↑

2. The Fabelmans (Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner) ↓

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniels)

4. Babylon (Damien Chazelle)

5. Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Östlund)

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6. TÁR (Todd Field)

7. Armageddon Time (James Gray)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Women Talking (Sarah Polley)

2. She Said (Rebecca Lenkiewicz)

3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson)

4. The Whale (Samuel D. Hunter)

5. White Noise (Noah Baumbach) ↑

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6. Living (Kazuo Ishiguro) ↑

7. Till (Chinonye Chukwu, Michael Reilly, Keith Beauchamp) ↑

Best Lead Actor

1. Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

2. Austin Butler (Elvis)

3. Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)

4. Hugh Jackman (The Son)

5. Bill Nighy (Living)

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6. Diego Calva (Babylon)

7. Jeremy Pope (The Inspection) ↑

Best Lead Actress

1. Cate Blanchett (TÁR)

2. Danielle Deadwyler (Till)

3. Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) ↑

4. Margot Robbie (Babylon) ↓

5. Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)

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6. Naomi Ackie (I Wanna Dance with Somebody)

7. Olivia Colman (Empire of Light)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)

2. Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) ↑

3. Paul Dano (The Fabelmans) ↓

4. Ben Whishaw (Women Talking)

5. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)

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6. Anthony Hopkins (Armageddon Time) ↑

7. Brad Pitt (Babylon) ↓

Best Supporting Actress

1. Jessie Buckley (Women Talking)

2. Claire Foy (Women Talking)

3. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) ↑

4. Hong Chau (The Whale) ↑

5. Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)

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6. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) ↑

7. Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness) ↑

Best Cinematography

1. Babylon

2. The Fabelmans

3. Empire of Light ↑

4. All Quiet on the Western Front ↑

5. Bardo ↓

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6. Top Gun: Maverick

7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ↑

Best Film Editing

1. Babylon

2. Top Gun: Maverick

3. The Fabelmans

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once

5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery ↑

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6. All Quiet on the Western Front

7. Women Talking ↓

Best Original Score

1. Babylon

2. The Fabelmans

3. The Banshees of Inisherin ↑

4. The Woman King ↓

5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio ↑

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6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ↑

7. The Batman ↑

Best Sound

1. Top Gun: Maverick

2. Avatar: The Way of Water

3. All Quiet on the Western Front

4. Babylon

5. The Batman ↑

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6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ↓

7. Elvis

Best Production Design

1. Babylon

2. Avatar: The Way of Water

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4. The Fabelmans

5. Elvis ↑

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6. The Woman King

7. All Quiet on the Western Front ↓

Best Costume Design

1. Babylon

2. Elvis

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4. The Woman King

5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

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6. Avatar: The Way of Water

7. The Fabelmans

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. The Whale

2. Babylon

3. Elvis

4. The Woman King

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

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6. All Quiet on the Western Front

7. The Batman ↑

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: The Way of Water

2. Top Gun Maverick ↑

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ↓

4. The Batman ↓

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once

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6. RRR ↑

7. Nope

Best Animated Feature

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

2. My Father's Dragon ↑

3. Turning Red ↓

4. The Bad Guys

5. Strange World

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6. Wendell & Wild ↓

7. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On ↑

Best International Feature

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)

2. Decision to Leave (South Korea)

3. Close (Belgium)

4. Saint Omer (France)

5. Bardo (Mexico)

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6. Alcarràs (Spain)

7. Holy Spider (Denmark)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Descendant ↑

2. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed ↓

3. Fire of Love ↓

4. The Territory ↑

5. Navalny ↑

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6. Sr. ↓

7. All That Breathes ↑