2023 Oscar Update: Critics' Choice and Oscar Shortlists

Welcome to an ongoing series where I cover the 2022/2023 Oscar season. On a biweekly basis on Tuesdays, I will update my Oscar predictions, taking into account the new information received since the last update.

We’ve now reached the calm before the storm of the awards season. Nearly all significant awards bodies have announced their nominations and will have their winners presented later.

One group that came immediately after my last update was the Critics’ Choice Awards, who kept up their annual tradition of sucking up to the Oscars in the most egregious ways possible. They really outdid themselves this year with TEN nominees for Best Director and eleven nominees for Best Picture. And because the Critics’ Choice voters want to include nearly every potential Oscar player, their influence on the season isn’t that immense, as no one gets a boost for being nominated, and no one gets hurt for being left out (because no one is left out).

Thankfully, the Academy itself provided some action as they announced the shortlists containing the 10-15 films that will be eligible for nominations within several below-the-line categories. Here’s a breakdown of the categories that had snubs or surprises:

Documentary Feature Film: The streamers are not happy as Amazon’s Good Night Oppy and Netflix’s Sr. were left off the shortlist.

International Feature Film: Alcarràs from Spain doesn’t make the list, while Last Film Show from India makes it in despite continually living in the shadow of RRR.

Makeup and Hairstyling: Two A24 titles in Everything Everywhere All at Once and X are snubbed, while poorly reviewed films like Amsterdam and Blonde find themselves on the inside.

Original Score: Although he’s a previous winner for Up, Michael Giacchino once again is snubbed by the branch for his score in The Batman. The same can be said for Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, who most recently won for Soul. Their scores for Empire of Light and Bones and All didn’t make the cut.

Original Song: RRR finally got some recognition with “Naatu Naatu” moving on to the next round. It’s not really a surprise for Diane Warren to get in for “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman, even though you’d be hard-pressed to find a single person who’s heard of that film.

Sound: The Fabelmans, Nope, and Thirteen Lives are huge snubs considering their legendary teams and/or showy work. RRR would also have been a likely addition, but it too was left out in the cold.

Visual Effects: RRR again fails to make the cut, and so does Everything Everywhere All at Once in shocking fashion. Those two films won’t feel much of a sting from missing out, as this category is virtually locked by Avatar: The Way of Water.

While RRR did miss out on a few potential craft nominations, its Best Picture and Best Director chances remain pretty strong. Several regional critics groups have nominated the film and Rajamouli in their respective categories, keeping the momentum building. I still have it on the outside of both categories, but am getting increasingly tempted to fit it in.

By the next update, the winners of the “reformed” Golden Globes will have been announced, and the SAG/DGA nominations will be unveiled. BAFTA will have also revealed their longlists, and several craft guilds will announce their nominees.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in every category (except for the shorts and Best Original Song) for December 27, 2022.

Best Picture

1. The Fabelmans

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Top Gun: Maverick

5. TÁR ↑

6. Women Talking ↓

7. Avatar: The Way of Water

8. Elvis ↑

9. Babylon ↓

10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

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11. RRR ↑

12. Triangle of Sadness

Best Director

1. Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

2. Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once) ↑

3. Todd Field (TÁR)

4. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) ↑

5. Sarah Polley (Women Talking) ↓

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6. James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water)

7. S.S. Rajamouli ↑

Best Original Screenplay

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniels)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh)

3. The Fabelmans (Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner)

4. TÁR (Todd Field)

5. Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Östlund)

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6. Babylon (Damien Chazelle)

7. Aftersun (Charlotte Wells)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Women Talking (Sarah Polley)

2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson)

3. She Said (Rebecca Lenkiewicz)

4. The Whale (Samuel D. Hunter)

5. Living (Kazuo Ishiguro)

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6. Top Gun: Maverick (Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie)

7. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio (Guillermo del Toro & Patrick McHale) ↓

Best Lead Actor

1. Austin Butler (Elvis)

2. Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)

3. Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

4. Bill Nighy (Living)

5. Hugh Jackman (The Son)

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6. Paul Mescal (Aftersun)

7. Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)

Best Lead Actress

1. Cate Blanchett (TÁR)

2. Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

3. Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)

4. Danielle Deadwyler (Till)

5. Margot Robbie (Babylon)

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6. Viola Davis (The Woman King)

7. Olivia Colman (Empire of Light)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

2. Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)

3. Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) ↑

4. Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)

5. Brad Pitt (Babylon) ↑

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6. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) ↓

7. Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) ↑

Best Supporting Actress

1. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)

2. Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once) ↑

3. Jessie Buckley (Women Talking) ↑

4. Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery) ↑

5. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) ↑

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6. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) ↑

7. Claire Foy (Women Talking) ↓

Best Cinematography

1. Top Gun: Maverick

2. The Fabelmans

3. Avatar: The Way of Water

4. Babylon

5. All Quiet on the Western Front ↑

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6. Empire of Light ↓

7. Bardo

Best Film Editing

1. Top Gun: Maverick

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. The Fabelmans

4. Elvis ↑

5. Avatar: The Way of Water ↓

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6. Babylon

7. The Banshees of Inisherin ↑

Best Original Score

1. Babylon

2. The Fabelmans

3. Women Talking

4. The Banshees of Inisherin

5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

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6. The Woman King

7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ↑

Best Sound

1. Top Gun: Maverick

2. Avatar: The Way of Water

3. All Quiet on the Western Front

4. Elvis

5. The Batman

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6. Babylon

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once ↑

Best Production Design

1. Babylon

2. Avatar: The Way of Water

3. Elvis

4. The Fabelmans

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

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6. All Quiet on the Western Front

7. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery ↑

Best Costume Design

1. Babylon

2. Elvis

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4. The Woman King

5. The Fabelmans

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6. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

7. Corsage ↑

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. The Whale

2. Elvis

3. Babylon

4. The Batman ↑

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

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6. All Quiet on the Western Front

7. Crimes of the Future ↑

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: The Way of Water

2. Top Gun Maverick

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4. The Batman ↑

5. Nope ↑

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6. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ↑

7. All Quiet on the Western Front ↑

Best Animated Feature

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

2. Turning Red

3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish ↑

5. My Father's Dragon ↓

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6. Wendell & Wild

7. Strange World

Best International Feature

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) ↑

2. Decision to Leave (South Korea) ↓

3. Close (Belgium)

4. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina) ↑

5. Bardo (Mexico)

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6. EO (Poland)

7. The Quiet Girl (Ireland) ↑

Best Documentary Feature

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

2. Navalny

3. All That Breathes

4. Fire of Love

5. Descendant ↑

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6. The Territory ↑

7. Moonage Daydream ↑