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  • Writer's pictureHunter Friesen
    • Jan 8

Golden Globe Award Predictions


After a one-year hiatus, the Golden Globes are returning to television to potentially deliver their trademarked not-your-usual winners. Despite “overhauling” their voting body with the addition of new international members, all of the members that awarded Best Motion Picture - Drama to Bohemian Rhapsody are still a part of this group. This means that we could see some wild outcomes in several down-to-the-wire categories.


In preparation for the show this Tuesday (for some odd reason), I'm predicting the winners in each category. Each of the nominees is ranked in terms of their likelihood to come out on top. Some of the categories have a significant divide between the top and runner-up spots and some categories are neck-and-neck. No matter how the results shake out, we should all be in for an exciting night that kicks off the televised section of the awards season.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

  1. Hold My Hand (Top Gun: Maverick)

  2. Lift Me Up (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

  3. Naatu Naatu (RRR)

  4. Carolina (Where the Crawdads Sing)

  5. Ciao Papa (Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio)


It’s a star-studded lineup with Lady Gaga (Hold My Hand) and Rihanna (Lift Me Up) fighting to see who comes out on top. I’ve got my money on Gaga, who won this award a few years ago for A Star Is Born. She also gets a boost from Top Gun: Maverick being a big contender in Best Motion Picture - Drama, something Rihanna doesn’t have.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

  1. Babylon

  2. The Fabelmans

  3. Women Talking

  4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

  5. The Banshees of Inisherin


It’s a category filled with past winners, except for Carter Burwell (who, sadly, likely won’t join that club this time around). Justin Hurwitz (Babylon) is undefeated, winning for his work in First Man and La La Land. Of course, he was then robbed of an Oscar nomination for First Man, so history might repeat itself if he wins here like I’m predicting. 27-time nominee John Williams (The Fabelmans) is close on Hurwitz’s heels. And so is Hildur Guðnadóttir with Women Talking and Alexandre Desplat with Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio.

 

BEST MOTION PICTURE - ANIMATED

  1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

  2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

  3. Turning Red

  4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

  5. Inu-Oh


The Globes can sometimes throw a curveball with this category, as evidenced by Missing Link winning in 2020. I don’t think anything out of the ordinary will happen this time, with Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio having a very comfortable lead over the other contenders. With a passionate fanbase, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On stands the best chance at upsetting.

 

BEST MOTION PICTURE - NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE

  1. RRR

  2. All Quiet on the Western Front

  3. Decision to Leave

  4. Close

  5. Argentina, 1985


With RRR not eligible for this award at the Oscars, this is a perfect opportunity for the Globes to be the first, and maybe only, televised awards show to bestow laurels upon the film. The presence of “Naatu Naatu” in Best Original Song gives me reassurance for RRR, but there are some strong competitors that can’t be simply shrugged off. All Quiet on the Western Front has performed exceptionally well these past few weeks with the Oscar and BAFTA longlists, and Decision to Leave and Close have received good mentions since their Cannes premieres.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  1. Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

  2. Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)

  3. Brad Pitt (Babylon)

  4. Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)

  5. Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)


Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Banshees of Inisherin may be duking it out in several categories, but this isn’t going to be one of them. Ke Huy Quan has already started his sweep at the critic's awards, and there are no signs that this train will be stopping anytime soon. Put this one down in ink and get ready for a great speech.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  1. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)

  2. Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

  3. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

  4. Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness)

  5. Carey Mulligan (She Said)


Honestly, the only thing I look forward to with this category is that we’ll finally get some indication of who’s leading in the Oscar race. I’d say it’s a 40/40/20 split between Condon, Curtis, and Bassett for who wins here. I’m going with Condon because… why not? Curtis is a seven-time nominee and two-time winner, so I might be foolish for doing this. I’ll be happy to take the small hit here if it means more clarity when it comes time for the Oscars.

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE - MUSICAL OR COMEDY

  1. Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)

  2. Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)

  3. Diego Calva (Babylon)

  4. Adam Driver (White Noise)

  5. Ralph Fiennes (The Menu)


Yeah, we don’t even need to consider Colin Farrell not winning here. Unfortunately, we won’t know who finished in the runner-up position, as that’s the more interesting question.

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - MUSICAL OR COMEDY

  1. Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

  2. Margot Robbie (Babylon)

  3. Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande)

  4. Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu)

  5. Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris)


Ditto everything I just said for Colin Farrell.

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA

  1. Austin Butler (Elvis)

  2. Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

  3. Bill Nighy (Living)

  4. Hugh Jackman (The Son)

  5. Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)


With Elvis also netting a Best Director and Best Motion Picture - Drama nomination, it’s hard not to see that love for the movie come to fruition in the form of Austin Butler’s lead performance. Brendan Fraser winning here would make for an awkward situation on account of his history with the organization, and I’m guessing most voters don’t want that to be the topic of discussion on awards night.

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA

  1. Cate Blanchett (TÁR)

  2. Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)

  3. Viola Davis (The Woman King)

  4. Olivia Colman (Empire of Light)

  5. Ana de Armas (Blonde)


With Michelle Yeoh being her closest competition for the Oscar, it seems like Cate Blanchett will reach the podium with ease here. TÁR was also able to receive a Best Screenplay and Best Motion Picture - Drama nomination, which was never fully guaranteed based on the film’s enigmatic nature. There are a lot of deeply admired actresses within this group, so there’s always the potential for an upset. The one thing keeping me from considering that is it’s impossible to predict which one might do it because they all have a legitimate shot.

 

BEST SCREENPLAY

  1. The Banshees of Inisherin

  2. Everything Everywhere All at Once

  3. Women Talking

  4. The Fablemans

  5. TÁR


This might be the category that most alludes to what film will win Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) won this award last he was nominated for Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri, and has practically swept the critic's awards. The Daniels (EEAAO) have been no slouches themselves, and neither has Sarah Polley for Women Talking.

 

BEST DIRECTOR

  1. Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

  2. Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

  3. James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water)

  4. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)

  5. Baz Luhrmann (Elvis)


It almost seems too easy to predict Steven Spielberg, as The Fabelmans has been having a very up-and-down awards season so far. To Spielberg’s credit, he does have a record 14 nominations in this category and is currently the frontrunner for the Oscar. There’s just a nagging feeling in the back of my head that is all too simple…

 

BEST MOTION PICTURE - MUSICAL OR COMEDY

  1. Everything Everywhere All at Once

  2. The Banshees of Inisherin

  3. Babylon

  4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

  5. Triangle of Sadness


Despite my picking of The Banshees of Inisherin to come out ahead in Best Supporting Actress and Best Screenplay, Everything Everywhere All at Once still has this category thanks to the overwhelming passion of its fanbase and locked wins with Ke Huy Quan and Michelle Yeoh. If EEAAO wants to plant itself as the frontrunner for the Oscar, it needs to get the win here.

 

BEST MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA

  1. The Fabelmans

  2. Top Gun: Maverick

  3. Elvis

  4. Avatar: The Way of Water

  5. TÁR


Just as I said with Spielberg in Best Director, it almost feels like a trap to predict The Fabelmans. Both Top Gun: Maverick and Elvis are waiting in the wings, waiting for The Fabelmans to slip up somewhere. I can’t bring myself to not predict Spielberg just yet, but the tides are not turning in the right direction. If The Fabelmans can’t get the win here, then I think its Best Picture chances are severely lessened.

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