Golden Globe Nomination Predictions

For better and for worse, the Golden Globes have always been the most fun awards body to do predictions for. Because they are the first real precursor (no shade to the Gothams or Independent Spirit Awards), the Globes act as the initial temperature check for Oscar campaigns, confirming or denying what we’ve spent months speculating about. And they usually throw in a few curveballs to keep up appearances.

Of course, their reputation has taken a hit, not because of what they’ve been nominating (although the love for Sia’s Music a few years ago definitely didn’t help), but because of long-standing unethical journalistic practices and a lack of diversity within its membership.

Last year’s Golden Globes epitomized the age-old quote “If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?” The lack of a ceremony, sort of similar to what they did for the 2007 awards season when the writer’s strike took place, didn’t help the Oscar chances for the nominees/winners.

So, in order to regain their influence and the minuscule amount of respect they once had, the Globes will be back to putting on a televised show on January 10, 2023. The amount of stars that will be in attendance is a looming question, and will also be entirely dependent on who they nominate tomorrow morning.

The voting body likely won’t be up to their usual Globes-y antics on account of their membership being given a large shakeup. But there will still probably be a few out-of-left-field picks, specifically in those final spots in the acting categories.

In this article, I’ll be doing a dive into the above-the-line categories, giving predictions and analysis on who will likely show up.

*Nominees are listed in order of likelihood to be nominated, with the first listed being the most likely.

Best Motion Picture - Drama

PREDICTED NOMINEES: The Fabelmans, Women Talking, Top Gun: Maverick, Elvis, TÁR

Presumed Best Picture favorites The Fabelmans and Women Talking will be likely nomination leaders come Monday morning. Top Gun: Maverick won’t have the benefit of a bevy of craft nominations here, but it's resounding critical and audience reception keeps it in a safe position. The same can be said for Elvis, which has reportedly played extremely well to award voters. Plus, this is still more or less the same group that awarded Bohemian Rhapsody this prize in 2018. Sneaking in with the last spot is Todd Field’s TÁR on account of strong critical reviews and a lack of competition from other potential nominees such as The Woman King and The Whale.

Best Motion Picture - Musical/Comedy

PREDICTED NOMINEES: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Babylon, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Triangle of Sadness

The love for Martin McDonagh has been thoroughly evident over the years, with In Bruges picking up nominations for its lead actors and Best Picture, and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri dominating with four wins, including Best Screenplay and Best Picture. This is why The Banshees of Inisherin takes the top spot ahead of Everything Everywhere All at Once, which still stands as a formidable opponent. Things start to fall off after that, with Damien Chazelle’s Babylon and Rian Johnson’s Glass Onion still having an assured chance at a nomination thanks to their pedigree and star power. The last spot is up for grabs between Triangle of Sadness and Bros, with Ruben Östlund’s vomit-filled satire just barely winning out.

Best Director

PREDICTED NOMINEES: Steven Spielberg, Sarah Polley, Martin McDonagh, Daniels, James Cameron

Spielberg, McDonagh, and Cameron all return after past acclaim, with Polley and Daniels becoming the newcomers to the group. Polley seems to be a sure thing with her film rivaling Fabelmans for the Best Drama award. The same can be said for Daniels, even though I suspect they’ll be the first to go if a surprise nomination comes in akin to Ridley Scott for All the Money in the World or Maggie Gyllenhaal for The Lost Daughter. Todd Field and Damien Chazelle are knocking on the door, so we'll just have to see if either of them is able to break in.

Best Screenplay

PREDICTED NOMINEES: The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin, Women Talking, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Triangle of Sadness

The top four are all secure, with the last spot potentially going a number of different ways. TÁR, Glass Onion, Triangle of Sadness, and The Whale (distantly) all have a realistic chance. I’m going with Östlund and Triangle of Sadness because of the more international voting group. Babylon would be the next up, followed by Glass Onion.

Best Lead Actor - Drama

PREDICTED NOMINEES: Austin Butler, Brendan Fraser, Bill Nighy, Tom Cruise, Hugh Jackman

Despite already announcing that he won’t attend the ceremony, Brendan Fraser will assuredly receive a nomination for his work in The Whale. Both he and Austin Butler are looking to mount their Oscar campaigns with a win here. Bill Nighy sits comfortably in third for Living. Tom Cruise barely edges out Hugh Jackman (who still barely gets in because of his clout) in The Son on account of Maverick being well-liked and Cruise being a three-time winner (even though he returned all of his trophies).

Best Lead Actress - Drama

PREDICTED NOMINEES: Cate Blanchett, Michelle Williams, Danielle Deadwyler, Viola Davis, Jennifer Lawrence

This is where the stars come to shine. Both Davis and Lawrence are previous winners and extremely well-liked, so it wouldn’t come as a surprise for them to receive their only nominations of the season here. Deadwyler is looking good at the moment, but her movie has underperformed and might not provide her enough support to break in. But the same could be said for Andra Day, who went on to win this category and kickstart her Oscar momentum for The United States vs. Billie Holiday just a few years ago.

Best Lead Actor - Musical/Comedy

PREDICTED NOMINEES: Colin Farrell, Daniel Craig, Tom Hanks, Billy Eichner, Diego Calva

As a ten-time nominee and three-time winner, Tom Hanks sits only below Meryl Streep as Golden Globe acting royalty. Early reactions to A Man Called Otto have been surprisingly kind, with Hanks’ performance being one of the standouts. He won’t be in a position to win as Colin Farrell has this firmly locked up. Daniel Craig will return as Benoit Blanc, and Billy Eichner will show up as the face of his movie. Diego Calva’s inclusion entirely depends on the overall reception to Babylon, with Adam Sandler (Hustle) and Adam Driver (White Noise) nipping at his heels.

Best Lead Actress - Musical/Comedy

PREDICTED NOMINEES: Michelle Yeoh, Margot Robbie, Emma Thompson, Anya Taylor-Joy, Lesley Manville

Despite Michelle Yeoh having the win in the bag, the race is still on for a nomination. Margot Robbie is a part of a predicted heavy hitter, and Emma Thompson is a ten-time nominee who managed to get in for Late Night a few years ago. Anya Taylor-Joy returns after double nominations in 2020 for performances in The Queen's Gambit and Emma.. That leaves Lesley Manville as the final inclusion, who could come away with two nominations thanks to her supporting performance in this season of The Crown.

Best Supporting Actor

PREDICTED NOMINEES: Ke Huy Quan, Brendan Gleeson, Ben Whishaw, Paul Dano, Eddie Redmayne

Since the supporting categories are not split up between genres, we can pretty safely predict the Oscar frontrunners, with a surprise twist for good measure. Redmayne fits the description for that surprise inclusion, as he’s a previous winner doing very showy work in The Good Nurse. Between the Globes and SAG, he could be this season’s Jared Leto in The Little Things. With Redmayne in The Good Nurse and Evan Peters in Dahmer, this year’s Globes could be a very serial killer heavy event.

Best Supporting Actress

PREDICTED NOMINEES: Jessie Buckley, Claire Foy, Kerry Condon, Jamie Lee Curtis, Hong Chau

With this category still being so up in the air at the moment, the best thing we can do is default to predicted frontrunners and people we know they love. Buckley, Foy, and Condon all seem positioned for Oscar nominations, and they appear in big movies. Curtis is a seven-time nominee and two-time winner, and Chau was last here for Downsizing. Curtis could be replaced by co-star Stephanie Hsu, and there’s always Janelle Monáe from Glass Onion.