The Golden Globes have always been a surprising bunch. Luckily, those shocking nominees and winners have tended to lean more positively in the last few years. Inspired choices like nominating Payal Kapadia for All We Imagine as Light in Best Director, or Sebastian Stan winning Best Lead Actor - Musical or Comedy for A Different Man, have shown that a new leaf has turned. Because of this, I’m widening the scope of potential nominees, no longer just lazily name-checking big stars. Granted, there are still plenty of heavyhitters that can, and probably will, be nominated. It should all make for a fun nomination morning.

Here are my predictions on what names will be called in each category, complete with a full breakdown detailing the seemingly endless combinations.

Best Motion Picture - Drama

1. Sinners

2. Hamnet

3. It Was Just an Accident

4. Sentimental Value

5. Frankenstein

6. The Secret Agent

   
   

Until the 2021 awards season, non-English language films were not allowed to compete in the top categories of Best Motion Picture - Drama and Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy. The group has slowly embraced this extra freedom in the years since, granting nominations to Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest, and Emilia Pérez. This is the year where they have the chance to blow the floodgates wide open, with several prominent contenders coming from outside the United States. Coincidentally (or not considering the company's strategy), that lot is almost all represented by Neon and premiered at the Cannes Film Festival. They've got the pedigree, so why shouldn't I go all in? More traditional choices would be Avatar: Fire and Ash and Is This Thing On?.

Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy

1. One Battle After Another

2. Marty Supreme

3. Wicked: For Good

4. Jay Kelly

5. No Other Choice

6. The Testament of Ann Lee

   
   

Similar to last year, this year's crop of musicals and comedies seems just as intertwined in the Oscar race as the dramas. Both Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery and Bugonia are just on the outside, as their buzz feels a little muted, and the reviews aren't any better than the other contenders. Yorgos Lanthimos and the Knives Out films have been consistent nominees in this category before, so one or both could easily make their way in.

Best Director

1. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)

2. Ryan Coogler (Sinners)

3. Chloe Zhao (Hamnet)

4. Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident)

5. Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)

6. Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein)

   
   

This category gave us a pleasant curveball last year with Payal Kapadia from All We Imagine as Light. Considering all the heavyweight talent in contention this year, I don't foresee another one of those surprises. The only upset I'm predicting is for Joachim Trier to miss out, although he still has just as much of a chance of being nominated as Josh Safdie and Guillermo del Toro.

Best Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another

2. Sinners

3. It Was Just an Accident

4. Hamnet

5. Sentimental Value

6. Marty Supreme

   
   

Since the start of the decade, Being the Ricardos and Women Talking remain the only two films to receive nominations in this category without a corresponding Best Motion Picture nomination. There's also an equally strong correlation between this category and Best Director, which is why I'm predicting a Joachim Trier and Guillermo del Toro to swap seats.

Best Lead Actor - Drama

1. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

2. Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)

3. Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)

4. Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere)

5. Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine)

6. Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone)

   
   

Dwayne Johnson and Jeremy Allen White were at the top of my predictions in the early fall. Now they've fallen (pun intended) down to fringe contenders after their respective films bombed at the box office and received lukewarm reviews. The same is even more true for Daniel Day-Lewis in Anemone, although I can't bring myself to doubt his legendary status.

Best Lead Actress - Drama

1. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

2. Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)

3. Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love)

4. Laura Dern (Is This Thing On?)

5. Jodie Foster (A Private Life)

6. Julia Roberts (After the Hunt)

   
   

Veterans like Laura Dern, Jodie Foster, and Julia Roberts are all hanging onto the last slots, each of them, along with Jennifer Lawrence, likely to be the lone representatives for their respective films. Both critically and commercially, After the Hunt has been one of the biggest bombs of the year. Roberts was given high marks for her work, and voters may reward her for emerging from that mess with some dignity. Jodie Foster seems to (deservedly) be in an era where people are eager to reward her for anything. She won Best Supporting Actress for her work in The Mauritanian, which didn’t even lead to an Oscar nomination. Plus, she speaks French!

Best Lead Actor - Musical or Comedy

1. Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)

3. George Clooney (Jay Kelly)

4. Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice)

5. Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

6. Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)

   
   

The leads for each of the male-centered nominees I have for Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy are all here. That leaves two slots left, which I'm giving to Jesse Plemons for Bugonia and Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon. Plemons was nominated last year for Kinds of Kindness, a film that was much further outside the awards conversation than Bugonia is. And Hawke has received career-best reviews in a showcase role. Daniel Craig has been nominated both times as Benoit Blanc, and he's still just as great in Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery. But there's less of him this time around, and the extra competition seems like it will be too much.

Best Lead Actress - Musical or Comedy

1. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good)

2. Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee)

3. Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another)

4. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)

5. Emma Stone (Bugonia)

6. Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue)

   
   

This is less competitive than the rest of the other lead acting categories. The seemingly only other viable contender would be Eva Victor for Sorry, Baby. As much as I would like to see that happen, I can't find a spot to slot her in.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value)

2. Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)

3. Paul Mescal (Hamnet)

4. Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly)

5. Benicio del Toro (One Batte After Another)

6. Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)

   
   

I see no reason not to predict the top six contenders for the Oscar, especially when all are (potentially) appearing in Best Motion Picture nominees. That logic could also mean that Delroy Lindo could get in for Sinners.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

2. Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good)

3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)

4. Amy Madigan (Weapons)

5. Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)

6. Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)

   
   

Emily Blunt is one of this organization's favorite actresses, nominated seven times throughout the past twenty years. However, I don’t think that amount of preferential treatment will help her get nominated this year for her role in The Smashing Machine. I’m going out on a limb a little bit and predicting Wunmi Mosaku to get in over her, an actress who’s been steadily praised throughout the year in a juggernaut film.

Best Foreign Language Film

1. It Was Just an Accident (Iran)

2. Sentimental Value (Norway)

3. The Secret Agent (Brazil)

4. No Other Choice (South Korea)

5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

6. Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan)

   
   

Considering that I’m predicting four of these films to be nominated for Best Motion Picture - Drama or Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy, I feel compelled to also slot them in here. That leaves two slots left to fill in a category that likes to deviate from the expected Oscar front-runners. The Voice of Hind Rajab and Left-Handed Girl have been making waves since their festival debuts. Several other contenders could make their way in instead, such as Sirāt, Sound of Falling, or Nouvelle Vague.

Best Animated Feature Film

1. KPop Demon Hunters

2. Zootopia 2

3. Arco

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

5. Scarlet

6. Elio

   
   

Pixar has been nominated each year since 2016, when Finding Dory found itself kicked to the curb. While it didn’t have the best reviews, that movie at least had a monster box office haul to stand behind, something that Elio sorely lacks. But the expansion of this category and the lack of bigger contenders will probably allow it to sneak in.

The Globes are much friendlier to anime than the Oscars, which should bode well for the several high-profile films that have come out this year. Any combination of Ne Zha 2, Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle, or Chainsaw Man could take that spot. I’m going to give the edge to the previous nominee, Mamoru Hosoda and Scarlet, which has Sony Pictures Classics behind it.

Best Original Score

1. Sinners

2. One Battle After Another

3. Hamnet

4. Frankenstein

5. Jay Kelly

6. The Testament of Ann Lee

   
   

Once an Oscar perennial, Alexandre Desplat hasn’t received a nomination since Little Women back in 2019. That hasn’t stopped his momentum at the Globes, as he’s received three more nominations since then. Even more beloved are Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, who pulled off the wild upset last year with their victory for Challengers. Their work in Tron: Ares is great, but the movie probably doesn't have the juice to push them over contenders from more acclaimed films.

Best Original Song

1. I Lied to You (Sinners)

2. Golden (KPop Demon Hunters)

3. The Girl in the Bubble (Wicked: For Good)

4. Dream as One (Avatar: Fire and Ash)

5. Train Dreams (Train Dreams)

6. Drive (F1: The Movie)

   
   

The top three predictions come from music-centric films, so I feel pretty secure about that. Miley Cyrus received a nomination last year for her song in The Last Showgirl. Seeing as how Avatar: Fire and Ash will be exponentially more popular than that film, she’ll probably be back again. Everything else is kind of a wild guess, leaning more towards big names in big commercial or critical movies.

Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

2. KPop Demon Hunters

3. Zootopia 2

4. Wicked: For Good

5. Sinners

6. Superman

7. F1: The Movie

8. Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle

   
   

In this category’s short and shameless existence, it has yet to honor a streaming film. That will probably change this year with KPop Demon Hunters dominating the culture for months, which includes muscling its way to the top of the box office weekend in late August despite a limited release. From there, I’m going down the domestic box office charts, picking each film that had some sort of critical and cultural significance.