Welcome to an ongoing series where I cover the 2025/2026 awards season. On a regular basis, I will update my Oscar predictions, taking into account the new information that has been received since the last update. Full predictions in every category can be found on the Home and Awards page.

The summer movie season is in full swing, packing the multiplexes with big blockbusters and nine-figure box office grosses. The warm winds also mean it's time to scratch the burgeoning itch that is the upcoming Oscar season through some early scouting and shot-in-the-dark predictions. Luckily, two of the major film festivals of the year, Sundance and Cannes, are in the books. The former featured little to no contenders beyond the usual smattering of documentaries, while the latter debuted a few seemingly strong contenders.

As we've learned over the years from Parasite, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest, The Substance, and Anora, to be a Best Picture contender born at Cannes, you must leave there with a prize in hand. That leads us to first look at this year's Palme d'Or winner: Jafar Panahi's It Was Just an Accident. As evidenced by the assortment of festival prizes, Panahi is a revered auteur in the cinephile sphere of influence. This victory was part of a natural progression for him. That momentum and the film's potent political messaging are the main ingredients that could bring it into the Best Picture race.

However, there are also several drawbacks. Iran will certainly not be submitting it for Best International Feature, and coproducers France and Luxembourg have previously illustrated that they won't submit non-native films. This will also be a tough sell at the box office, with a low ceiling that might not be high enough to gather public momentum. Distributor Neon clearly has a lot on their plate, and were in a similar situation last year with the Iranian thriller The Seed of the Sacred Fig, which turned out to be an awards disappointment. The company has grown as a campaigner over the years, but it remains to be seen if it can handle pushing multiple films into the top categories.

Between the reported 15-19 minute standing ovation, enthusiastic reviews, and headlining stars, Sentimental Value will be Neon's main priority. They bought the film at last year's Cannes Film Festival before production had commenced, so they've had their eggs in this basket for a while now. They also just announced the same mid-fall release date as Anatomy of a Fall and Anora, so there's little reason to doubt that it will be a major player. I expect it to appear at all the major fall festivals before then.

From there, it’s hard to gauge how the other prize winners will perform. Rigorous features like Sirât, Sound of Falling, and Resurrection each received acclaim and were picked up by reputable distributors. They likely won't appear in any major Oscar categories, but could factor into the Best International Feature race, should they be submitted to compete.

Leaving empty-handed was Die, My Love. The reviews were mixed-positive, with all praise going to Jennifer Lawrence's lead performance. That would normally be enough for an Oscar favorite like her, but it's difficult to predict a lone acting nomination for a film that will be quite hostile towards audiences. Mubi did part with a chunk of change for the distribution rights, so they'll be making a big effort to get the film recognized in more categories.

Other than the already premiered films, the rest of the predictions are a patchwork of educated guesses. As a reminder, this phase is solely about the nomination. We won't be thinking about winners until the new year. At this time last year, I had Joker: Folie à Deux, The End, and The Piano Lesson in my Best Picture lineup, so everything here is written with pencil. TIFF already announced its opening night film (John Candy: I Like Me), so the fall festival train has already left the station and will be accelerating over the next few months. My next update will come later this summer once we have a clear picture of what will be competing.