Welcome to an ongoing series where I cover the 2024/2025 awards season. On a regular basis, I will update my Oscar predictions, taking into account the new information that has been received since the last update. Full predictions in every category can be found on the Home and Awards page.

The people have spoken! Well, technically only the critics and select industry people have spoken. But even if we’ve only gotten a taste of the full precursor season so far, this is still one of the most formative times of the year, a moment when every publicist needs to decide if their campaign can ease up or slam on the gas pedal. Things are being written in pen rather than pencil, and it’s time to start putting our money where our mouths have been for the past several months.

I’ll start by saying that all the money I‘ve been pushing to the middle of the table on the prospects of Blitz for so long has turned into a colossal failure. Between the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice nominations, the Apple TV+ production walked away with one stinking nomination… for Best Young Actor/Actress. In the last update, I mentioned the small possibility that the film could rebound at the BAFTAS. Now I don’t think it matters, the total indifference by the public being so strong that nothing will penetrate it. These past few weeks have hurt double for Saoirse Ronan as her other performance in The Outrun has been blanked just as badly.

Let’s move on to greener pastures, which is where films like Emilia Pérez, Conclave, and Wicked have been roaming. Jacques Audiard’s Mexican-set musical cleaned up at the European Film Awards, set a record for the most nominations at the Golden Globes for a comedy/musical film, and tied for the second most nominations at Critics Choice. Conclave and Wicked led in total nominations at the Critics Choice, the former being so strong that I’m even considering moving it to the top of my Best Picture rankings. Anora is still at the peak by default, but I’m still in a “need to see it to believe it” mode for a Sean Baker film to win the televised awards.

What are we going to do with The Substance? That’s a question I’ve been repeatedly asking myself over these past few days. On one hand, the impressive overperformance at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice inspires great confidence in a handful of the above-the-line categories needed to secure a Best Picture nomination. On the other hand, this is still a polarizing film, at least in the sense of its mass appeal. Of course that hasn’t stopped several other films from being nominated over the years, but you’ll forgive me for thinking this case is a little more out there than any of those. It’s right behind A Real Pain for that last slot, although it won’t take much more to convince me it’ll get in.

The announcement of the shortlists today for ten of the categories at the Oscars didn’t pack as many surprises as it did in years past. The usual heavy hitters were handsomely rewarded across the board, as did almost all of the predicted contenders for the Best International Feature race. And good ol’ Diane Warren appears again in the Best Original Song category, which we all know will result in another anonymous Oscar nomination.

We’ll still have to wait until early January for the rest of the valuable precursors. SAG, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, and PGA will all occur within one week of each other. After that, we’ll have all that we need to make some “factual” predictions.