
Final 2025 Oscar Nomination Predictions
January 21, 2025
By:
Hunter Friesen
We’re finally here! After months of festivals, box office results, and precursor awards, it’s finally time to put the chips down on who will find themselves in the Academy’s good graces. Things are much more chaotic compared to last year, where you could place Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, and Barbie into nearly every category and come out with a decent record.
This all leads me to my most important lesson of Oscar prognosticating: You have to go in with the mindset that you’re going to get 25% of your predictions wrong. The top score over at GoldDerby for last year’s nominations was around 80%. I like to go in with the same mindset I have for golf; which is not to make the most great shots, but to make the least bad ones. A gutsy shot tends to backfire more than it succeeds, which doesn’t bode well in a game where every shot counts. What does that mean here? It means not trying to overcomplicate things, and focusing your attention only on what’s needed. Go with the logical picks that favor the probabilities, and only go out on a limb for something you really feel is going to hit.
As a focus tool, I’ve devised each category into three levels of likelihood for a nomination: Locks, Safe, and Shaky. Here’s a breakdown of how those categories are defined:
Locks are virtually guaranteed to get a nomination. They’re more focused on winning the Oscar, with the nomination only being a formality. The only time you should spend on them is what it takes to write their names down on your predictions. A lock being snubbed is cause for headlines, and that’s something you can’t predict.
Safes seem very likely to happen, and a snub would be a major talking point. They’ve hit pretty much every precursor they could, and have displayed support from the voting body. But there might be a hiccup in their campaign or a nagging feeling that there’s reason for doubt. Someone like Viola Davis in The Woman King fits this description. She was nominated at every precursor and is a titan in the industry. But the film just wasn’t landing in other categories, which led her to lose steam.
Shaky is where you find a group of people fighting for those spots. They’ve hit some places and missed others, or their work goes against what the branch tends to favor. They might also have legitimate reasons for being a surprise nomination or a not-so-surprising snub.
Something I’ve leaned away from in recent years is stats. There are just way too many variables at play: voter demographics, voter quantity, precursors influence, Academy rules, cultural sentiment, etc. It’s like debating if Magic Johnson or Steph Curry had a better NBA career. How can you compare two players who played in totally different eras and wildly different styles of play? Stats are helpful in some cases, but they should rarely be used as the primary justification for a prediction.
As a matter of transparency, I will not be predicting the three short categories: Live-Action Short, Animated Short, and Documentary Short. It’s a fool’s errand to try and provide analysis for a category where I’ve seen none of the contenders and has no precursors to guide the way. I’ll just be going with the GoldDerby consensus.
Without further ado, let’s get started!
Best Picture
Locks
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
The Brutalist
Anora
Wicked
Safe
A Complete Unknown
The Substance
Dune: Part Two
Shaky
A Real Pain
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing has exemplified the "we're so back / we're so cooked" theme all season. It's done well at the smaller bodies, only to slip up once the lights get brighter. But it still has nominations for Adapted Screenplay and Lead Actor locked up, which lends just enough support to it holding on. But that PGA nomination for A Real Pain was a huge shot in the arm to go along with Kieran Culkin’s dominance, and Nickel Boys is still one of the most acclaimed films of the year. Unfortunately, I have to kick Sing Sing out, something I didn’t think was possible as I had it as a potential Best Picture winner just a few months ago.
Best Director
Locks
Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)
Safe
Sean Baker (Anora)
Edward Berger (Conclave)
Shaky
Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
The director’s branch of the Academy is only rivaled by the Documentary Feature branch in terms of being insular and having its own rules of who gets in and who doesn’t. It’s one of the few categories where you can semi-logically predict a snub for someone who has hit every precursor, or a surprise nomination for someone who hasn’t appeared anywhere else.
Although Edward Berger didn't make it in for All Quiet on the Western Front despite that film's overwhelming dominance, he's firmly been promoted from outsider status and has an even bigger Best Picture contender with Conclave. The last spot seems to be between Coralie Fargeat and RaMell Ross, with the former having both the stats (GG, CCA, and BAFTA nominations) and momentum to back her up. Ross may not have either of those, but what he accomplishes in Nickel Boys is exactly the type of auteur-driven work that this branch admires. He would be following in the footsteps of Ruben Östlund and Jonathan Glazer, both of which got in when the stats said that they should be counted out.
Best Original Screenplay
Locks
Anora (Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold)
A Real Pain (Jesse Eisenberg)
Safe
The Substance (Coralie Fargeat)
Shaky
September 5 (Tim Fehlbaum & Moritz Binder)
We likely have three films vying for one final slot: All We Imagine as Light, Hard Truths, and September 5. The PGA nomination for September 5 illustrated that it has the most legitimate shot at a Best Picture nomination of the trio, which pretty much gets it in by default. I would have had a tougher time choosing it over All We Imagine as Light if Payal Kapadia’s film hadn’t had such an unexpectedly lackluster at the BAFTA nominations. Of course, I would not be surprised if Mike Leigh got in instead for Hard Truths, which would be his sixth career nomination in the category. But he wasn't even longlisted by his hometown BAFTA, putting a big dent in those hopes.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Locks
Conclave (Peter Straughn)
Safe
Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard)
A Complete Unknown (James Mangold & Jay Cocks)
Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes)
Sing Sing (Greg Kwedar & Clint Bentley)
It’s been a bit of a struggle to predict the other four nominees who will eventually lose to Conclave. As I mentioned in the Best Picture category, I had Sing Sing as a cinch to win here a couple of months ago, and now I’m wondering if it stays in. Granted, there isn’t that much competition for the final slot, so I might as well see it all the way through.
Best Lead Actor
Locks
Adrian Brody (The Brutalist)
Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
Safe
Daniel Craig (Queer)
We've been working with the same group of five men for months now. None of them have wavered, even when they were supposed to (Craig making it in at SAG was truly shocking). Sebastian Stan is the next closest contender, but for which film? The Apprentice did well at BAFTA, and he just won a Golden Globe for his performance in A Different Man. With that kind of intense vote splitting, it's hard for me to make a case for him.
Best Lead Actress
Locks
Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)
Mikey Madison (Anora)
Demi Moore (The Substance)
Shaky
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
While the leading men have been sitting comfortably for months, the leading ladies have been thrown into chaos at every precursor. It feels like we've settled on a pretty sturdy set of four nominees, with that last slot being a bloodbath. There have only been two instances in the entire history of the Golden Globes where the winner of Best Lead Actress - Drama wasn't nominated at the Oscars. The first was because of a three-way tie in 1988 between Jodie Foster, Shirley MacLaine, and Sigourney Weaver (MacLaine was not Oscar-nominated), and the second was in 2008 when Kate Winslet won the Globe for Revolutionary Road, only for her to be nominated (and eventually) win in lead at the Oscar for The Reader.
This year's winner, Fernanda Torres, gave a wonderful speech and appeared in a beloved movie with many passionate fans. She's still in the bubble because the Globes have been the only place she's shown up at, not even being longlisted by BAFTA. On the other hand, the Globes have been the only place that Marianne Jean-Baptiste has missed (she technically missed SAG, but that was never going to happen), which includes a historic trifecta of victories at NYFCC, LAFCA, and NSFC. Whoever misses between them, it's going to be unprecedented.
And even with all that being said, there are still heavyweights like Nicole Kidman and Angelina Jolie. Neither of them has performed that well throughout the precursors, but you can never fully write them off.
Best Supporting Actor
Locks
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Safe
Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
Shaky
Yura Borisov (Anora)
Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
Similar to the Best Adapted Screenplay, we're finding four other nominees who will eventually lose to Kieran Culkin. Denzel Washington can get in on name alone (looking at you Roman J. Israel, Esq.), but his miss at SAG was a little puzzling, and BAFTA was never going to help him (he’s still yet to receive a single acting nomination from them). The ascendancy of Yura Borisov has been one of the biggest stories of the season, and he's gotten in everywhere he could at this point. And then there’s Jeremy Strong, who found his way in after getting both a SAG and BAFTA nomination right as Oscar voting was starting.
Best Supporting Actress
Locks
Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Ariana Grande (Wicked)
Safe
Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
Shaky
Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl)
This is the toughest acting category to predict, with Saldaña and Grande being the only names that will appear on everyone's prediction sheets. Isabella Rossellini feels pretty safe for Conclave. Her missing SAG wasn't great, but she's an industry legend, has enough other precursor support, and appears in a big Best Picture player. The same can be said for Felicity Jones (minus the legend part).
I've leaned into The Substance in every other above-the-line category, but Margaret Qualley just hasn’t shown up where she’s needed to. She’s been losing lately to Jamie Lee Curtis, who we’ve learned is one of the most beloved figures in Hollywood. And she’s an excellent campaigner, so good that I just can’t bet against her.
Danielle Deadwyler would also make a lot of sense after her SAG revitalization. But we already went down this road with her a few years ago for Till. Could we see a repeat, or will voters make sure this doesn't happen again?
Best Cinematography
Locks
The Brutalist
Safe
Nosferatu
Shaky
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Maria
Last year’s nomination for El Conde showed that Edward Lachmann only needs an ASC nomination to have a legitimate chance of breaking into this category, which bodes well for Maria. The rest of this lineup appeared at both the BAFTA and ASC nominations, pretty much securing their spot here. We’ve known for a while that this branch has a fetish for black-and-white, so I wouldn’t be surprised if The Girl with the Needle were to sneak in.
Best Film Editing
Locks
Conclave
Safe
Emilia Pérez
Anora
Shaky
Dune: Part Two
September 5
Although this category tends to be filled with top-tier Best Picture contenders, The Brutalist finds itself on the outside looking in because of its startling omissions from ACE and BAFTA. It could still get in based on pedigree, pushing out fringe contenders like Dune: Part Two and September 5. And then there are even films like Challengers and The Substance that showed up at ACE.
Best Original Score
Locks
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Safe
The Wild Robot
Shaky
Challengers
It's only been a few years since Justin Hurwitz won the Golden Globe Award for Original Score for First Man, only to be totally snubbed by the Oscars. That means this year's winners Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (Challengers) can't go into nomination morning feeling confident, especially since they were also not longlisted by BAFTA. But they're aided by the fact that there isn't a clear alternative to them. If it had to be someone, I'd look out for branch favorite Alberto Iglesias, who scored Pedro Almodóvar's The Room Next Door and was nominated for their previous collaboration for Parallel Mothers.
Best Original Song
Locks
El Mal (Emilia Pérez)
Mi Camino (Emilia Pérez)
Kiss the Sky (The Wild Robot)
Safe
The Journey (The Six Triple Eight)
Shaky
Harper and Will Go West (Will & Harper)
There are three things that are certain in life: Death, taxes, and Diane Warren getting an Oscar nomination. She's on 15 career nominations… with no wins. The Six Triple Eight is a blockbuster compared to the films she's gotten nominated for over the past few years (has anyone watched Tell It Like a Woman?). "Compress/Repress" got in at both the Golden Globes and CCA, so it would make sense to have it take that last slot. But I’m going to throw a bit of a curveball in the form of a documentary song, which this branch tends to favor.
Best Sound
Locks
Dune: Part Two
Wicked
Emilia Pérez
Safe
A Complete Unknown
Shaky
Alien: Romulus
Alien: Romulus was shortlisted in quite a few categories, so it would make sense for it to get a nomination somewhere. We had left-field nominees last year in the form of The Creator and Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One. They pushed out expected contender Napoleon, which I think will happen again for Ridley Scott and Gladiator II.
Best Production Design
Locks
Wicked
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Safe
A Complete Unknown
Nosferatu
While it’s hard to glean much information from the Art Directors Guild nominations due to the many categories they employ, the combination of it with the CCA and BAFTA paints a pretty accurate picture. Of course, films like Conclave and Gladiator II are just as likely to make it in, so it’s hard to be fully convinced that this will be the final five.
Best Costume Design
Locks
Wicked
Dune: Part Two
Shaky
Conclave
Nosferatu
A Complete Unknown
Wicked, Dune: Part Two, and Nosferatu were all mentioned by CCA, BAFTA, and the Costume Designers Guild. That leaves two spots left, which I’m giving to the surging A Complete Unknown and heavyweight player Conclave, both netting BAFTA nominations at the exact moment for them to translate to the Oscars.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Locks
The Substance
Wicked
Safe
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Shaky
A Different Man
Emilia Pérez
While most craft categories have steadily given more advantages to Best Picture players over the years, this category isn't afraid to be different. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and A Different Man have highly visible work and were well represented across the various categories at the Make-Up Artists & Hair Stylists Guild. Also mentioned was Emilia Pérez, which continued a trend of that film getting mentions where you wouldn't immediately expect it to. Surprisingly, Nosferatu didn't receive a single nomination by the group, although that might have been largely due to timing as the film was released two weeks after the nominations were announced. Regardless, the aversion this branch has to horror makeup makes me hesitant to think it will get in.
Best Visual Effects
Locks
Dune: Part Two
Wicked
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Safe
Better Man
Shaky
Alien: Romulus
Between Wicked, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Better Man, and Gladiator II, 2024 was the year of the monkey. Being a Best Picture juggernaut secures Wicked's spot, as does the overall strength of the Planet of the Apes series for Kingdom. Better Man features some extremely impressive work that is intertwined with the DNA of the film, so I think it stands a good chance. Gladiator II definitely had the highest quantity of effects of the bunch, but there were (valid) complaints that they weren't very good, leaving a spot open for something like Alien: Romulus.
Best Animated Feature
Locks
The Wild Robot
Flow
Safe
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
There hasn't been any movement within this category for months now, and no clear alternatives that could make a case for a surprise nomination. It's best to just set it and forget it, as there are so many more fish to fry.
Best International Feature
Locks
Emilia Pérez (France)
I'm Still Here (Brazil)
Safe
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Shaky
The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)
Vermiglio (Italy)
I've held onto these five titles for a while now, so I might as well stay the course and go down with the ship. The Girl with the Needle and Vermiglio performed very well at the European Film Awards and other industry precursors (both nominated at the Golden Globes and longlisted by BAFTA). Of course, so many films with pedigree and good stats have found themselves snubbed (I'm still crying about Decision to Leave). I'll be on the lookout for Kneecap, which had a great showing at BAFTA and BIFA.
Best Documentary Feature
Safe
No Other Land
Sugarcane
Shaky
Black Box Diaries
Daughters
Will & Harper
The absence of Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story on the shortlist illustrated yet another example of this branch's distaste for celebrity bio docs. While not exactly cut from the same cloth, one could assume that Will & Harper might suffer the same fate when it comes time to select the final five nominees. But the buzz has been great for the film, and it does much more than puff up a famous figure, so I think it squeaks in. The rest of the lineup is filled with more traditional contenders, with something like Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat being an alternate pick.
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