This year’s Golden Globes ceremony feels like a warm-up round for the two heavyweights that are One Battle After Another and Sinners, who will then have to clash at the main event that is the Oscars. Technically, both films are on the same team (Warner Bros.), so they should be very chummy with each other as they likely dominate their respective genre categories. The last time a studio won both Best Motion Picture - Drama and Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy in the same year was 20th Century Fox in 2015 for The Revenant and The Martian, respectively.

Like any good wrestling match, there are plenty of spoilers waiting in the wings. If this new version of the Globes has taught us anything, it’s that they’re not afraid to get weird. The old version of the Globes would never contemplate nominating Sebastian Stan for A Different Man or Fernanda Torres for I’m Still Here. Now those performances are (deservedly) winning prizes, a pleasant step in the right direction for an organization that perpetually deserves ridicule.

Below is a breakdown of each category for the film-related categories, delving into who the likely winner is expected to be and what other nominees have the potential to disrupt the competition.

Best Motion Picture - Drama

1. Sinners

2. Hamnet

3. Frankenstein

4. Sentimental Value

5. It Was Just an Accident

6. The Secret Agent

   
   

Neon is entering the night with a three-headed dragon, comprised of three foreign language films. It’s almost impossible to determine which one of those films has a better shot than the others, so it’s probably best to rule them all out. Hamnet and Frankenstein are worthy contenders, but neither has positioned itself as a winner throughout this precursor portion of the season. It’s clearly going to be Sinners, which seems to be amassing more acclaim in the nine months since its release.

Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy

1. One Battle After Another

2. Marty Supreme

3. Bugonia

4. No Other Choice

5. Blue Moon

6. Nouvelle Vague

   
   

Let’s give it up for Richard Linklater for directing two films nominated in this category, a feat that has never happened before. It won’t mean a whole lot for the chances of either film winning, but it’s a nice thing to see. Despite all the other achievements of the other nominated films, none of them is even close to matching One Battle After Another. It’s my lock of the week(end)!

Best Director

1. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)

2. Ryan Coogler (Sinners)

3. Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident)

4. Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

5. Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein)

6. Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)

   
   

Actually, never mind. This category is going to be my lock of the weekend, as Paul Thomas Anderson is finally being avalanched with the flowers he’s been deserving of for the past thirty years.

Best Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson)

2. Sinners (Ryan Coogler)

3. It Was Just an Accident (Jafar Panahi)

4. Sentimental Value (Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt)

5. Marty Supreme (Josh Safdie & Ronald Bronstein)

6. Hamnet (Chloé Zhao & Maggi O’Farrell)

   
   

It’s a two-horse race at the top, with One Battle After Another and Sinners being the runaway favorites in the adapted and original screenplay categories, respectively. Luckily for the loser and unluckily for the winner, this probably won’t have much effect on the Oscar race then. The mantra this season has been to bet on One Battle After Another, and it hasn’t steered me wrong yet. A real, yet fully plausible, shocker would be for Jafar Panahi to come from behind with It Was Just an Accident.

Best Lead Actor - Drama

1. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

2. Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)

3. Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine)

4. Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)

5. Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein)

6. Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere)

   
   

The Secret Agent making it into Best Motion Picture - Drama feels like it means something, especially when we’re only a year removed from Fernanda Torres winning Best Lead Actress - Drama here and starting the surge for I’m Still Here. But Michael B. Jordan is also right there, and his winning here would be a perfect compliment to the film’s eventual win in the Best Motion Picture - Drama category.

Best Lead Actress - Drama

1. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

2. Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)

3. Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love)

4. Julia Roberts (After the Hunt)

5. Tessa Thompson (Hedda)

6. Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby)

   
   

This is a shockingly light year for this category, which is usually stacked with Oscar contenders. Jessie Buckley and Renate Reinsve are the only ones with higher aspirations; the rest likely to be relegated to future episodes of the “This Had Oscar Buzz” podcast. Although I do want to give a shoutout to Eva Victor’s inclusion, as that’s a great nomination. Buckley seems like she’ll be the sweeper of the televised awards, having already started that train at the Critics' Choice Awards last weekend.

Best Lead Actor - Musical or Comedy

1. Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)

3. Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)

4. Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

5. Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice)

6. George Clooney (Jay Kelly)

   
   

As one of the most impressive lineups this category has ever seen, it’s a shame that only one nominee can win. Chalamet has delivered a career-best performance, both in the movie and on the campaign trail. His effort in the latter secured a mightily impressive box office performance, which confirmed his status as a major star. With that done, now it’s time for him to be awarded on the critical front.

Best Lead Actress - Musical or Comedy

1. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)

2. Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another)

3. Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee)

4. Emma Stone (Bugonia)

5. Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue)

6. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good)

   
   

The craziness of the past year can be illustrated by the fact that both of the lead performance contenders in the Musical or Comedy category stem from projects written by a Bronstein. Written and directed by Mary Bronstein, wife of Marty Supreme co-writer Ronald Bronstein, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You has come a long way since its premiere nearly a year ago at the Sundance Film Festival. Despite being initially written out of the awards conversation for being too abrasive, Rosy Bryne has been the critical darling, receiving awards from NYFCC, LAFCA, NBR, and being a runner-up at NSFC. This will be another win to get her to an Oscar nomination, which will be quite the accomplishment for such an anti-awards film.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another)

2. Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

3. Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)

4. Paul Mescal (Hamnet)

5. Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)

6. Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly)

   
   

This is an insanely tough category to predict, with the top three all having a seemingly equal chance of winning. Benicio del Toro has the majority of the critics’ prizes, with Stellan nabbing the LAFCA prize. And then Elordi just surprisingly won at the Critics’ Choice Awards last weekend. There’s no right decision here, but the least wrong one feels like Benicio. Either way, this will be an exciting Oscar race for a category that has been quite stagnant over the past decade.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Amy Madigan (Weapons)

2. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)

4. Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good)

5. Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)

6. Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine)

   
   

Not to be outdone by their male counterparts, the ladies are also bringing some chaotic energy to this category. Teyana and Inga have been splitting the critics’ prizes, with Madigan winning at the Critics’ Choice Awards. Despite what I just said for Best Supporting Actor, this scenario seems to favor Madigan, who really seems to have a lot of passion around her. Then again, betting against One Battle After Another is a fool’s errand.

Best Foreign Language Film

1. The Secret Agent (Brazil)

2. It Was Just an Accident (France)

3. Sentimental Value (Norway)

4. No Other Choice (South Korea)

5. Sirāt (Spain)

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

   
   

A majority of the nominees in this category are also nominated in the Best Motion Picture - Drama or Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy category, which kind of negates the competitive advantage that is usually only given to one film per year. Just as I said for Wagner Moura in Best Lead Actor  - Drama, The Secret Agent leaping into Best Motion Picture - Drama feels like it means something. I have a feeling that a lot of Brazilian voters feel like they missed out on a moment by not giving this prize to I’m Still Here last year. Given that practically every other nominee has a decent shot at winning, I’ll have no shame in getting this wrong.

Best Animated Feature Film

1. KPop Demon Hunters

2. Zootopia 2

3. Arco

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

5. Scarlet

6. Elio

   
   

While it always seemed like KPop Demon Hunters was going to eventually win the Oscar, the race was virtually over before it even began when the usually stuffy New York Film Critics Circle gave the film their Best Animated Feature prize. The Globes like to throw curveballs in this category, like when Missing Link beat Toy Story 4 in 2019. But the competition doesn’t seem to be there this year, so that's not likely to happen.

Best Original Score

1. Sinners (Ludwig Göransson)

2. One Battle After Another (Jonny Greenwood)

3. Sirāt (Kangding Ray)

4. F1 (Hans Zimmer)

5. Hamnet (Max Richter)

6. Frankenstein (Alexandre Desplat)

   
   

In a battle between Ludwig Göransson and Jonny Greenwood, I’ll probably give the edge to the former nominee since his film is specifically about the power of music. There’s also the distinct possibility of an upset by Kangding Ray for his rave music from Sirāt, which has a similar techno vibe to last year’s surprise winner of Challengers.

Best Original Song

1. Golden (KPop Demon Hunters)

2. I Lied to You (Sinners)

3. The Girl in the Bubble (Wicked: For Good)

4. Train Dreams (Train Dreams)

5. No Place Like Home (Wicked: For Good)

6. Dream as One (Avatar: Fire and Ash)

   
   

Your kids can’t stop singing it, it’s on the radio every day, and TikTok has been flooded by tribute edits. “Golden” is the cinematic song of the year, and everyone wants to be a part of its victory lap.

Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

1. Sinners

2. Avatar: Fire and Ash

3. KPop Demon Hunters

4. F1

5. Weapons

6. Zootopia 2

7. Wicked: For Good

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

   
   

Over this category’s brief two-year history, it's been won by Barbie and Wicked, two films that were nominated in their respective Best Motion Picture category. That leaves Sinners as the only viable candidate this year, and it’s got quite the box office story to bolster its chances. Of course, if you want to talk about overall big dollars, then that would certainly be Avatar: Fire and Ash. I’d also give a decent shot to KPop Demon Hunters, which feels like the movie with the most cultural impact this year.