Welcome to an ongoing series where I cover the 2025/2026 awards season. On a regular basis, I will update my Oscar predictions, taking into account the new information that has been received since the last update. Full predictions in every category can be found on the Home and Awards page.

At this point in the season, every studio has shown its cards. Well, technically, Disney and James Cameron still have Avatar: Fire and Ash waiting in the wings. But we can use precedent to accurately predict how that's going to go (hint: very lucratively). Over the past few months, festival buzz and critical reactions have been used to weed out the outright busts (After the Hunt, Ballad of a Small Player). Now, the precursor awards are here to separate the good from the great, and the great from the best.

Nothing has really changed at the top of the mountain, with the One Battle After Another crew almost certain to blaze a trail of domination over the next few months. I'm even going so far as to predict a record-tying five acting nominations, with the possibility of six if voters feel inclined to take Regina King along for the ride in Best Supporting Actress.

By winning the audience prizes at influential places like the Toronto International Film Festival, BFI London Film Festival, Middleburg Film Festival, Mill Valley Film Festival, and Virginia Film Festival, Hamnet also seems secure in the top tier of Oscar contenders. Jessie Buckley practically has her Oscar engraved for Best Lead Actress.

Rising considerably since its so-so birth at the Venice International Film Festival is Frankenstein. People want to separate the art from the artist, but that's almost impossible with a film by Guillermo del Toro, who always pours his passion into his work and is a marvelous cheerleader. That level of love, along with Netflix’s unrivaled talent at securing nominations, is why I’ve always predicted this film to do extremely well across the board. It will likely compete with Wicked: For Good in all of the craft categories.

Filling out those last slots in the high-nomination field is Marty Supreme and Sinners. I'm buying the hype on Marty Supreme, especially with this being A24's biggest production to date and the rest of their awards lineup being pretty lackluster. I'll be seeing it the day this piece is published, so I'll be adjusting my predictions accordingly.

What to do with Sinners? A few months ago, I would have pegged it as the film to beat for Best Picture. Now it has (theoretically) been beaten. Part of that problem has to do with the fact that, despite likely acquiring double-digit nominations, I'm currently not predicting any of the actors to be nominated, nor Ryan Coogler for Best Director. It feels a bit wrong, but we've been down this road too many times before with Barbie, Dune and Dune: Part Two, Top Gun: Maverick, and Avatar: The Way of Water. Hell, Coogler himself has been in this position twice before with his Black Panther films. The Academy just doesn't strongly respond to that level of populism in the above-the-line categories. I'll believe it when I see it.

Neon has engulfed the conversation around the various international contenders, with the usual suspects of It Was Just an Accident and Sentimental Value being the frontrunners. Look for one of them to win Best Original Screenplay, and likely both to be in for Best Picture and Best Director. The real race will be who wins Best International Feature, where stuff like No Other Choice and The Secret Agent could crash the party. If we learned anything from last year's awards race, it's that you shouldn't bet against Brazil.

Now is also the time to see who has the juice to be their film's lone nominee. Will the industry love for Ethan Hawke get him his first Best Lead Actor nomination for Blue Moon? Will Searchlight Pictures be able to mount a strong enough late push for Amanda Seyfried and The Testament of Ann Lee? Has the tanking of Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere at the box office destroyed the chances of both Jeremy Allen White and Jeremy Strong? Will the Writers' branch continue to nominate Rian Johnson for his Knives Out films? We'll know the answer to most of these within a month or so. Until then, it's time to double down or fold.