Welcome to an ongoing series where I cover the 2025/2026 awards season. On a regular basis, I will update my Oscar predictions, taking into account the new information that has been received since the last update. Full predictions in every category can be found on the Home and Awards page.

The “sink or swim” mentality has been exemplified over these past few weeks with the onslaught of criticism and industry groups casting their influence on the Oscar race. Emotions between fandoms run high as prospects see-saw from day to day. Which snubs or surprises truly matter is always a tough question to answer, a symptom of the cramming of all these awards within such a narrow gap of time. But it is a rush like no other, and it’s all (mostly) in service of the best films of the year.

Crashing down from its protracted high from last awards season is Wicked: For Good. In a stunning turn of events, the musical was unable to secure a nomination for Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes. Looking back at least fifty years (anything before then isn’t worth comparing), no musical that has been nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars has been snubbed by the Globes. It reminds me a lot of The Color Purple from a few years back. Like For Good, it had a lot of pedigree on paper, and even made a decent amount of appearances at other similarly timed precursor groups. But the reviews just weren’t up to standard, and everyone sensed that the dam was about to give.

The saving grace for For Good is that since the expansion of Best Picture to a locked ten system, no film has received more than five nominations and not also gotten into Best Picture. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is the separating factor for that stat, as it received five nominations. I’m predicting an almost identical haul for For Good, so I think history will repeat itself and this sequel gets pushed out.

Another blockbuster sequel that I’m kicking to the curb (at least for Best Picture) is Avatar: Fire and Ash. It’s always had the potential to suffer from “been there, done that” syndrome, especially now that the advantage of time is no longer on its side. All that could be countered if the film were good enough, which it isn’t. So, I’m making it a Visual Effects and Sound nominee, with it obviously winning the former category.

After starting strong, Jay Kelly has dipped quite a bit. It couldn’t get in for Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes, nor did it make a few of the Oscar shortlists it was expected to hit. Starting peculiarly strong and maintaining that energy has been Bugonia, which I’m subbing into Best Picture for Jay Kelly. I expect Lanthimos’ film to play better at the BAFTAs. These films are interchangeable throughout the rest of the season, with PGA being the moment of sudden death.

That leaves two open spots in Best Picture, which I’m currently filling with Train Dreams and The Secret Agent. It feels foolish to pick Neon to secure three films in Best Picture, having already theoretically secured a spot with It Was Just an Accident and Sentimental Value. However, The Secret Agent has had an impressive showing so far, and has much more passion behind it than many other films. Granted, its status as a critical darling gives it an advantage during this part of the season, which may not last once we start getting into the more mainstream televised awards. The path is brighter at this time, and I’d like to hop on that train before it’s too late.

With the Globes and shortlists consolidating power near the top, I’m leaning on the top Best Picture contenders to nab any final slots in categories they’re not already heavyweights in. That means One Battle After Another is getting the final spot in Best Costume Design and Best Makeup & Hairstyling, and Sinners gets into Best Production Design. On Oscar nomination morning, I expect at least three to four films to walk away with double-digit nominations, with the potential for One Battle After Another to either tie or break the all-time nomination record.