Cannes 2025 Lineup Predictions April 3, 2025 By: Hunter Friesen Film festivals are a lot like whack-a-mole. When one ends, the anticipation for the next begins. Sundance always kicks things off in January high up in the mountains of Utah, followed then by Berlin Film Festival in February, and SXSW in March. Now all eyes turn to the most prestigious festival of them all: Cannes. Cannes' influence on the awards season has grown exponentially over the past decade. Their Official Competition has fielded two best picture winners in Parasite and Anora ; as well as nominees like Triangle of Sadness , Anatomy of a Fall , The Zone of Interest , The Substance , and Emilia Pérez . This expansion has gone hand-in-hand with the international growth of the Academy, with these new members being more accepting of the highbrow work that Cannes has always prided itself on. With that kind of increased attention comes a greater desire for filmmakers and studios to birth their new works on the Croisette. Delegate General Thierry Fremaux will have to navigate a minefield to select the twenty-ish films that comprise this year's Official Competition. There will be no shortage of mainstays looking to get their customary slot, as well as several newcomers looking to make a splash on the world's biggest stage. The festival will announce its full lineup on April 10. Until then, I'll take a deep dive into the field and predict which ones are likely to be given the honor of climbing the coveted red steps this year. THE HEADLINERS Alpha Now that Coralie Fargeat just stormed Cannes with The Substance , the ball is back in Titane writer/director Julia Ducournau's court to unleash a new tale of biological horror. Neon is once again backing her, with Tahar Rahim and Golshifteh Farahani starring. The rumored plot follows a teenager who is mistreated by classmates once they believe she carries an infectious disease. As with Titane and Raw , that information will likely be just the tip of the iceberg. Die, My Love Not many filmmakers have a stronger bond with Cannes than Lynne Ramsay. The Scottish-born director has debuted each of her four feature films at the festival, as well as her early shorts. She'll be breaking her eight-year absence with a story about a mother struggling to keep her sanity. Jennifer Lawrence will star as the mother, with Robert Pattinson as her partner. Father, Mother, Sister, Brother When thinking of established American directors to make Cannes their home, you’d tend to think of the Coens and Wes Anderson. But it’s actually Jim Jarmusch that deserves to be at (or at least near) the top of that list as he’s premiered eleven feature films on the Croisette since 1984. His highest point was 2005’s Broken Flowers , which took home the Grand Prix. He began shooting his new film in the fall and late winter of 2023, recruiting the likes of Cate Blanchett, Adam Driver, Charlotte Rampling, and Vicky Krieps. Highest 2 Lowest Spike Lee is already 0/1 on English-language remakes of famous Asian films, his version of Oldboy was so terrible that 99% of filmmakers would steer very clear of that territory ever again. But Lee isn't like anybody else, and he's enlisted his most trusted accomplice, Denzel Washington, to pull off this reimagining of Akira Kurosawa's 1963 crime thriller. A24 and Apple TV+ are backing the project, with all parties interested in making a big splash before this hits theaters in the summer. No Other Choice 2022's Decision to Leave was one of director Park Chan-wook's most successful films, nabbing him the coveted Best Director prize at the festival. He'll likely return this year for his fifth appearance in competition with a Korean adaptation of the 1997 horror thriller novel The Ax . Lee Byung-hun will star as an unemployed man who, in an act of desperation, starts to kill all the other applicants for the new job he needs. Sentimental Value The Norwegian band that brought you 2021's The Worst Person in the World is back together! Joachim Trier is in the director's chair, Eskil Vogt is in the writer's room with him, and Renate Reinsve is in front of the camera. Brought into the fold is Stellen Skarsgård as Reinsve's film director father, who offers her the lead role in his next film. Neon preemptively acquired North American rights to the project, signaling their hunger to nab their sixth consecutive Palme d'Or. The Phoenician Scheme Cannes thrives on star power to fill its historic red carpet, and Wes Anderson always has enough to go around. His newest cast will feature no less than Tom Hanks, Scarlett Johansson, Benedict Cumberbatch, Bryan Cranston, Bill Murray, Michael Cera, Riz Ahmed, and Benicio del Toro in a comedic espionage thriller. Focus Features just dated the film for a theatrical release beginning on May 30, all but confirming a return to the Croisette. The Secret Agent The Brazilian director Kleber Mendonça Filho has quietly delivered some of the best-reviewed titles in each of the years he's been at Cannes. His last appearance in the Official Competition was in 2019 with Bacurau , which tied for the Jury Prize with Les Misérables . His latest project will be set in 1977, following a man who is on the run from a violent past. Walter Salles' I'm Still Here just put Brazil on the map at Venice last year with a similar story, will Filho do the same at Cannes this year? The Young Mother's Home If I were a gambling man, I would bet my entire life savings on the fact that the Belgian brothers Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne will premiere their latest film at Cannes. The duo have debuted their previous ten films on the Croisette dating back to 1996, with 1999’s Rosetta and 2005’s L’enfant both winning the Palme d’Or. They’ve also won the Best Screenplay ( Lorna’s Silence ) and Best Director awards ( Young Ahmed ), as well as the Prize of the Ecumenical Jury on three separate occasions. Their newest feature will tell the story of five young mothers striving for a better life for themselves and their children. Production began last fall, giving the brothers plenty of time to prepare for a record-breaking Palme d’Or run. THE LOYALISTS An Affair Arnaud Desplechin has made nearly a dozen appearances at the festival between the main competition and the sidebars. While his last few films have been disappointments, last year's Filmlovers! was met with great acclaim, renewing his standing invitation. He's got François Civil starring as a virtuoso pianist living an impossible love story. Eagles of the Republic Like much of the Western world, Cannes still remains slow to appreciate projects that originate from Africa. The Egyptian-born Tarik Saleh won the Best Screenplay prize at the 2022 edition of the festival with Cairo Conspiracy , the second film in his Cairo trilogy that will be concluded with this year's Eagles of the Republic . It follows an actor who is pressured to star in a film commissioned by the highest authorities. Nouvelle Vague While we’ll have to wait almost another two decades for Richard Linklater’s ambitious adaptation of Merrily We Roll Along , the famed Texan filmmaker has something up his sleeve that will be irresistible to the Cannes brass. He'll be making his French-language debut with his retelling of the production of Jean-Luc Godard's Breathless , complete with appearances by all the famous French New Wave figures that aided in solidifying the status that Cannes has within the industry. It’s been twenty years since Linklater last competed on the Riviera (2005’s Fast Food Nation ), so it's time for him to be brought back into the fold. Rosebush Pruning Brazilian director Karim Aïnouz has appeared in the competition lineup for the previous two editions of the festival with Firebrand and Motel Destino . The relatively muted reception to those films follows a similar trajectory throughout the rest of his Cannes career, placing a little bit of doubt on his usual standing invitation. But he's assembled his starriest cast yet in his new film, enlisting Elle Fanning, Pamela Anderson, Callum Turner, Tracy Letts, Jamie Bell, and Riley Keough in a story about a family all suffering with genetic illnesses on their estate. If this is Aïnouz's last chance to make an impression, he's at least taking the no guts, no glory approach. Silent Friend Hungarian writer/director Ildikó Enyedi did herself no favors by making her Official Competition debut with 2021's The Story of My Wife , her weakest film. However, the casting of the legendary Tony Leung in the lead role of her new project could more than well make up for that fault. The interesting concept also helps, with Leung playing an old tree observing life as he stands in the middle of a botanical garden. The Disappearance of Josef Mengele The Russian-born Kirill Serebrennikov has debuted his previous four features at Cannes, most recently last year with his English-language debut Limonov: The Ballad of Eddie . He shot his newest film before that one premiered, a retelling of notorious Nazi doctor Josef Mengele during his fugitive years in South America. August Diehl, everyone's favorite actor for playing Nazis, will play the doctor. The Mastermind Showing Up received the most attention and praise of writer/director Kelly Reichardt's career when it premiered on the final day of the 2022 edition of the festival. It only makes sense for all parties to continue the relationship, especially with her new project being a crime thriller starring Josh O'Connor as an art thief. Reichardt has often been the unsung hero of independent cinema, so it's about time she received some laurels on a big stage. Vie Privée Writer/director Rebecca Zlotowski has been a staple of the sidebars, competing in Critics’ Week, Un Certain Regard, and Directors’ Fortnight. Will this be the time she finally graduates to the main competition? She's got none other than Jodie Foster leading her next film as a psychiatrist who mounts a private investigation after she believes that one of her patients has been murdered. Virginie Efira and Mathieu Amalric are also part of the cast. Yes! Success has followed Nadav Lapid wherever he goes as of late. He won the Golden Bear at Berlin for Synonyms in 2019, and then the Jury Prize at Cannes for Ahed's Knee in 2021. While it's definitely a coincidence, Lapid seems to be taking inspiration from Jim Carrey's 2008 Yes Man for his next feature, which will also be about a man who can only answer "yes" to every question asked to him. The Israeli Film Fund gave it backing last year, and it was pitched at the Cannes Investor Circle, so Lapid has always been interacting on the Croisette with this project. THE UP-AND-COMERS / QUESTION MARKS Eddington After three much-discussed features with A24, Ari Aster has shed his newcomer status and become one of the leading figures of American independent cinema. His new film is certainly a step up, with a cast comprised of Joaquin Phoenix, Emma Stone, Pedro Pascal, and Austin Butler. If any audience is going to be receptive to Aster's craziness on the first go-around, it would be Cannes. Miroirs No. 3 Along with Hong Sang-soo, German writer/director Christian Petzold is one of the most consistent headlining figures of the Berlin Film Festival. However, he was notably absent from this year's lineup, likely due to the time constraint caused by his newest film beginning production in the fall. The question is now if he'll wait a whole year to finally claim the elusive Golden Bear, or pivot to another major European festival. Cannes would be happy to have Petzold's, especially since it marks another reteaming of the director with the luminous Paula Beer. Orphan László Nemes began his career in 2015 at the top of the mountain. His film Son of Saul won the Grand Jury Prize at Cannes and then the Oscar for Best Foreign Language Film (now named Best International Feature). He debuted his follow-up, Sunset , in 2018 at Venice to less acclaim and attention. He'll be staying in his native Hungary for his third feature, centering on a young boy who must confront the truth about his father after he turns out to be alive after being presumed dead. Nemes' usual collaborators co-writer Clara Royer and cinematographer Mátyás Erdely are back as well. Resurrection Chinese mainland director Bi Gan was the talk of the town in 2018 when he debuted Long Day's Journey Into Night , complete with the one-hour-long single take, as part of the Un Certain Regard section. Production on his next project, a sci-fi detective story, has been in production for quite some time, supposedly being finished late last year. Multiple producers from all over the world have boarded the project over the past few months, signaling a lot of confidence in what Gan has created. Stitches Angelina Jolie looks to be staying in Paris for one more film. This time she'll be playing an American filmmaker arriving to cover the famed Fashion Week, facing challenges and self-discovery. Cannes veteran Alice Winocour wrote and directed the feature, with her previous effort being the well-reviewed Revoir Paris in 2022. The History of Sound Reports were published last summer that director Oliver Hermanus' new film wouldn't be ready in time for the fall festivals. It would instead use the extra time it had bought to fine-tune and wait for a potential premiere at Cannes. With rising superstars Josh O'Connor and Paul Mescal headlining, that bet may pay off quite well. Even if it doesn't appear at Cannes, expect it to be a heavy hitter at Venice, where Hermanus took Living back in 2022. The Love That Remains Hlynur Pálmason's Godland made quite the splash in the Un Certain Regard section in 2022, eventually being shortlisted as Iceland's submission for the Best International Feature Oscar. He shot his new film under-the-radar in Iceland last year, which will tell the story of a family as the parents navigate a separation amidst the changing seasons. The film has already been shopped around at the Berlin Film Market for worldwide distribution, signaling that it's ready to go. The big question that remains is if he'll graduate to the Official Competition, or remain in the sidebars. The Wave Cannes got more than they bargained for with Emilia Pérez last year. Would they be willing to program another Spanish-language musical so quickly, this time from renowned filmmaker Sebastián Lelio? His story takes place in his native Chile, centering on a student who gets involved in a feminist movement at her university. Cannes remains one of the few festivals Lelio hasn't made an impression at (his 2009 film Navidad premiered in the Directors' Fortnight section to tepid reviews), giving him all the more reason to represent South American cinema on the world's biggest stage. The Way of the Wind There’s no way to figure out when a Terrence Malick film will be released. All you can do is wait and pray. Malick premiered his last movie, A Hidden Life , at Cannes in 2019, and he also won the Palme d’Or for his magnum opus The Tree Of Life in 2011. He once again has saddled himself with another weighty topic, as The Way Of The Wind will tell several episodes of the life of Jesus Christ, led by a cast of Mark Rylance, Ben Kingsley, Joseph Fiennes, and Matthias Schoenaerts. Several of Malick’s films have been delayed for years as he endlessly tinkers in the editing room, so there’s no telling when this film will be seen. More Reviews Primetime September 22, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Unabomber September 24, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Look Back September 16, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Elsinore September 14, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Hunter Friesen

Awards Update: The People Have Spoken! December 18, 2024 By: Hunter Friesen Welcome to an ongoing series where I cover the 2024/2025 awards season. On a regular basis, I will update my Oscar predictions, taking into account the new information that has been received since the last update. Full predictions in every category can be found on the Home and Awards page. The people have spoken! Well, technically only the critics and select industry people have spoken. But even if we’ve only gotten a taste of the full precursor season so far, this is still one of the most formative times of the year, a moment when every publicist needs to decide if their campaign can ease up or slam on the gas pedal. Things are being written in pen rather than pencil, and it’s time to start putting our money where our mouths have been for the past several months. I’ll start by saying that all the money I‘ve been pushing to the middle of the table on the prospects of Blitz for so long has turned into a colossal failure. Between the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice nominations, the Apple TV+ production walked away with one stinking nomination… for Best Young Actor/Actress. In the last update, I mentioned the small possibility that the film could rebound at the BAFTAS. Now I don’t think it matters, the total indifference by the public being so strong that nothing will penetrate it. These past few weeks have hurt double for Saoirse Ronan as her other performance in The Outrun has been blanked just as badly. Let’s move on to greener pastures, which is where films like Emilia Pérez , Conclave , and Wicked have been roaming. Jacques Audiard’s Mexican-set musical cleaned up at the European Film Awards, set a record for the most nominations at the Golden Globes for a comedy/musical film, and tied for the second most nominations at Critics Choice. Conclave and Wicked led in total nominations at the Critics Choice, the former being so strong that I’m even considering moving it to the top of my Best Picture rankings. Anora is still at the peak by default, but I’m still in a “need to see it to believe it” mode for a Sean Baker film to win the televised awards. What are we going to do with The Substance ? That’s a question I’ve been repeatedly asking myself over these past few days. On one hand, the impressive overperformance at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice inspires great confidence in a handful of the above-the-line categories needed to secure a Best Picture nomination. On the other hand, this is still a polarizing film, at least in the sense of its mass appeal. Of course that hasn’t stopped several other films from being nominated over the years, but you’ll forgive me for thinking this case is a little more out there than any of those. It’s right behind A Real Pain for that last slot, although it won’t take much more to convince me it’ll get in. The announcement of the shortlists today for ten of the categories at the Oscars didn’t pack as many surprises as it did in years past. The usual heavy hitters were handsomely rewarded across the board, as did almost all of the predicted contenders for the Best International Feature race. And good ol’ Diane Warren appears again in the Best Original Song category, which we all know will result in another anonymous Oscar nomination. We’ll still have to wait until early January for the rest of the valuable precursors. SAG, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, and PGA will all occur within one week of each other. After that, we’ll have all that we need to make some “factual” predictions. More Reviews Primetime September 22, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Unabomber September 24, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Look Back September 16, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Elsinore September 14, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen

Relay August 18, 2025 By: Button Hunter Friesen Except for its horrendous opening scene conversation between whistleblower Matthew Maher and CEO Victor Garber (going uncredited for his brief cameo), Relay consistently punches way above its weight class. It's got an interesting premise, great talent both in front of and behind the camera, and an eagerness to entertain. Now all it needs is an audience to pick up what it's putting down, or else this will be just another case of a mid-budget film exemplifying the age-old adage of "If a tree falls in a forest..." While Maher's character may be a whistleblower in possession of incriminating documents, his meeting with Garber doesn't serve the purpose we would normally assume. This isn't about one showdown before the bad guy gets their comeuppance. No, this is about doing the (depressingly) logical thing, which is to give the documents back and live to see another day. Being a hero costs a lot more than anyone is willing to pay, and the bad guys are getting more ruthless and efficient. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ywC__z5VgZM This unofficial surrender doesn't come easy, which is where Tom (Riz Ahmed) comes in to work his magic. He's the unofficial agent for the whistleblower, handling every interaction between them and the company. Of course, this line of work can get quite dangerous. Tom protects his anonymity from everyone by communicating through the Telecommunications Relay Service (TRS), which enables people who are deaf to communicate with standard telephone users. Sarah (Lily James) is the newest client for Tom. She's stolen documents proving the cover-up of the fact that her company's newest lab product has cancerous side effects. Sam Worthington's team of ex-special forces operatives has surveilled and harassed her day and night on behalf of the company, and it's Tom's job to get her out of the mud. Ahmed may already be an Oscar nominee for his work in Sound of Metal , but Relay provides the most powerful example of his leading man capabilities. His first line of dialogue doesn't come until the film enters its second act, allowing Ahmed to flex his presence throughout the cat-and-mouse proceedings. He dons a few disguises, pulls some switcheroos that would make Ethan Hunt blush, and has a no-nonsense attitude about getting the job done with as little interference as possible. Movie logic dictates that the main character's strict moral and/or professional code must be broken on the next job they take, especially if said job is supposed to be their last. Screenwriter Justin Piasecki doesn't shy away from those clichés, wrapping them around strong characters to bolster the narrative. We follow the job from beginning to end, learning the complex directions (and misdirections) Tom must follow to keep himself one step ahead. It's incredibly physically and mentally draining work, with no affirming reward beyond the simple act of survival. Director David Mackenzie, returning to the silver screen after a seven-year hiatus that included a detour into television, makes sure that the struggle is incredibly satisfying to watch unfold. The kineticism is akin to an espionage thriller, with Tony Doogan's late-night score providing a smoky, cool atmosphere. The camera flows freely within the real-life settings, lending authenticity to this life-and-death story that goes unnoticed in plain sight. Bleecker Street will release Relay in theaters nationwide on August 22nd. More Reviews Primetime September 22, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Unabomber September 24, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Look Back September 16, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Elsinore September 14, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Hunter Friesen

I Care a Lot February 25, 2021 By: Button Hunter Friesen Have you ever stopped to think about how we treat our elderly in America? Once they reach a certain age and things start to get more difficult, we ship them off to a glorified daycare that they never return from. It’s a process we never want to think about, as it gives us a guilty conscience. But that exact feeling of guilt and shame is something that writer/director J Blakeson wants you to confront in his new film, I Care a Lot , a part social satire, part crime thriller. “I’m not a lamb, I’m a (expletive) lioness,” says Marla Grayson as she opens the movie, shunning us, the audience, for thinking we’re good people when we enable her to do so much evil. Marla is a state-appointed legal guardian who looks after elderly people who are deemed too unwell to care for themselves. Marla swoops in, ships the person to a secure retirement home, and seizes all their assets for herself. It's a lucrative occupation that is buoyed by an American public unwilling to care for its own. I Care a Lot is as black as a black comedy can be. There is not one single nice character within this whole movie, and not one single nice deed is done. It’s two hours of theft, manipulation, and in some cases, murder. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D40uHmTSPew The first half of the film dives deep into the scandalous nature of retirement care, which is treated as a crime ring. The process starts as Marla uses her doctor contact to scout patients who are both wealthy and healthy enough to be a perennial cash cow. In exchange for a monetary sum, the doctor recommends to a judge that Marla be the patient’s guardian. Marla then auctions off the patient’s belongings, using the funds to pay herself and the exorbitant retirement home fees she's negotiated under-the-table with the manager. It’s a grueling process that becomes harder to stomach as time goes on, but Blakeson doesn’t want us to look away; he wants to see what we’re complicit in. Rosamund Pike plays Marla in a role she was born to play. Sporting a sharp blonde bob, stunning suits, and taking huge drags from the world’s largest vape pen, Pike commands the screen every second she’s on. It’s a towering performance similar to that of her Oscar-nominated role in Gone Girl . She’s certifiably crazy, extremely ambitious, and scary as hell. Pike has already been Golden Globe-nominated this year for Best Performance in a Comedy, which is ironic since the only kind of laughing I did while watching this was nervous laughter. With the second half, Blakeson takes a sharp turn away from social satire and into an increasingly wild crime thriller. Marla has taken a “golden goose” under her care, someone named Jennifer Peterson (a perfect Dianne Wiest), who has no living family and a lot of money to spend on medical fees. But the predator quickly becomes the prey as it is discovered that Jennifer isn’t who they think she is. Turns out she’s connected to the Russian mafia, run by a sadistic Peter Dinklage. This is the part of the movie where you will either throw your hands up in disgust or gleefully delve into the chaotic mess. The second half is inferior to the first as it trades its bite for conventional plotting. It also tests your connection with Marla as you instinctively root for her to win against the mafia, even though she clearly is the villain in the grand scheme of things. At times, you wonder who is worse between the two of them. Even then, there is a lot of fun to be had watching her get out of this deadly situation. You do have to suspend some disbelief, but what movie doesn’t make you do that? The score by Marc Canham takes a lot of inspiration from the Safdie Brothers’ Uncut Gems . Like the tonal shift of the plot, the synthesized music starts playful, but gets darker as Marla descends into the criminal underworld. I Care a Lot is a pitch-black comedy in the similar vein of Gone Girl and Uncut Gems . It’s both a scathing satire on the retirement system in America and an entertaining crime thriller boasting a terrific performance from leading lady Rosamund Pike. Netflix will release I Care a Lot on its streaming service on February 19th. More Reviews Primetime September 22, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Unabomber September 24, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Look Back September 16, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Elsinore September 14, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Hunter Friesen

Fair Play February 2, 2023 By: Button Hunter Friesen Netflix must have had big Promising Young Woman prospects when spending a festival-record $20 million on writer/director Chloe Domont's debut feature, Fair Play . Fennell's 2020 Oscar-winning film has laid the path for similarly biting films to gain recognition, and Domont follows close to that model with her thrilling examination of gender politics and relationships within the corporate world. But while Fair Play is quite provocative with its mixture of sex and violence, much of it comes to its detriment when the credibility of its authenticity comes into question during the third-act climax. Emily (Phoebe Dynevor) and Luke (Alden Ehrenreich) are the usual extremely motivated Wall Street up-and-comers that you've come to expect. Along with their undying motivation for their careers, they also can't take a break from each other. Their physical passion is unmatched, evidenced by an impromptu hookup in the bathroom at Luke's brother's wedding, which Luke wildly takes as an opportunity to propose. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vICUPlr3EEI Despite now proving their undying love for each other in private, they must keep their relationship a secret in public, as they both work for the same high-stakes hedge fund where office romance is strictly forbidden. The couple makes it work most of the time, professionally speaking to each other and only passing glances when no one is looking. But all bets are off when a senior employee is fired, and his position is up for grabs. The pair must juggle their ambitions with their loyalty to each other, along with keeping their indiscretions under the rug. Domont depicts the world of high finance as a pressure cooker that melts even the brightest people down into monsters. If Martin Scorsese's The Wolf of Wall Street (smartly) glorified the life of wheeling and dealing, Fair Play offers a sobering reality. A glaring Eddie Marsan sits in his corner office, ready to berate his employees at any moment. The underlings are constantly pitted against each other, with loyalty disintegrated whenever the slightest hint of upward mobility comes into play. Emily and Luke initially try their best to sidestep the rat race, with each offering the usual "may the best man win" rhetoric. But when Luke makes that statement, he means it literally, as it slowly starts to dawn on Emily that he sees a significant difference between them based on their gender. Ehrenreich brings that toxic alpha-male energy to Luke. He's someone who says all the right things to your face (usually laced with an unhealthy amount of curse words), but you know he doesn't believe any of it. This is a world where men usually get what they want, and their inflated egos come crashing down when they’re "unfairly" passed over. Domont doesn’t portray Emily as a saintly female in a sea of testosterone, with Dynevor, already a Netflix star through Bridgerton , packing a hard edge in her performance. There are no heroes in this story, only those who get their hands dirty and those who get them dirtier. The carnal influence of Adrian Lyne (who marked any unceremonious return last year with Deep Water ) is apparent, with Domont blending the dour and gleeful to semi-positive results. There's a hearty (and unhealthy) amount of excitement you get out of people taking down one another, even if the reasoning behind all of it is morally corrupt. Things do come off the rails alarmingly quickly during the climax when the theatricality of the situation greatly overpowers the reality. The messaging is obvious in volume, but a bit murky in tone, leaving things not as nicely wrapped as the presentation would signal. This review was originally published from the world premiere at the 2023 Sundance Film Festival. Netflix will release Fair Play in select theaters on September 29th, followed by its streaming premiere on October 13th. More Reviews Primetime September 22, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Unabomber September 24, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Look Back September 16, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Elsinore September 14, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Hunter Friesen

Jurassic World: Rebirth July 1, 2025 By: Button Hunter Friesen Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me six times, shame on both of us, I guess? In its thirty-two-year-long existence and now seven-film catalogue, the Jurassic Park franchise has produced only a single decent entry: Steven Spielberg’s iconic 1993 original. A .142 batting average would get a major league baseball player sent down to the minor leagues the next day. In Hollywood, it nets you billions of dollars. Rebirth is the worst kind of baseball player: the kind who strikes out looking. Despite nearly all of its swings missing by an ever-increasing number the longer it stood at the plate, the Jurassic World trilogy at least had the gumption to have an idea about what’s next in the prehistoric cycle of life. Rebirth isn’t remotely concerned with evolution, just survival. It’s a scientific fact that 99.9% of species that have ever existed on Earth are extinct. Time has proven that survival isn’t enough. Now I’m counting down the days until this franchise gets kicked out of that exclusive 0.1% club. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jan5CFWs9ic It’s no secret that nostalgia in its most weaponized form has been the oxygen that keeps this dying flame from completely going out. Nostalgia for the first time you saw a dinosaur on screen, so real that you could have walked up and touched it. Nostalgia for John Williams’ score, which immediately evokes a sweeping grandeur. Nostalgia for the one-liners coming from likeable characters. Rebirth attempts at mimicking all that without an ounce of shame. Even when it does hit the target, which, to be clear, is not often, the positive effects have been diluted down. Another shady company wants something from another dinosaur-infested island, which means another ragtag group of characters must defy another set of million-to-one odds in order to live to see another day. Supplying the financial motivation is Martin Krebs (Rupert Friend), a representative of ParkerGenix, whose top scientists have found out that the blood of three dinosaurs is the final ingredient to developing a miracle cure for heart disease. Ex-special forces Zora Bennett (Scarlett Johansson) is the hired muscle, Dr. Henry Loomis (Jonathan Bailey) is providing the on-the-ground paleontology expertise, and Duncan Kincaid (Mahershala Ali) is the only boat captain brave enough to venture into certain death. There are a few other members of this expedition, but the absence of their names from the poster immediately signifies that their sole responsibility is to be dinosaur food. With stars like this, there’s an innate likability to these characters. Unfortunately, you leave the theater with nothing more than what you brought in. I’d estimate that 80% of Bailey’s character is his cute glasses and sweater. Returning from the original film and its immediate sequel, The Lost World: Jurassic Park , screenwriter David Koepp pushes past all notions of characterization, truncating important aspects like motivation and depth. Running in conjunction and sometimes parallel to all of this is the story of a family stranded on the island after a whale-like dinosaur called a Mosasaur capsizes their boat. Their fight for survival grinds down any sense of momentum and tension, with long stretches of children in weightless peril. Director Gareth Edwards at least has the sense to create a pretty picture through some sun-baked imagery. As evidenced by his 2014 Godzilla film and The Creator , Edwards has a knack for establishing large-scale spectacle. What needs to be improved is executing on that promise. There isn’t a signature moment of awe or terror here, just several okay-ish copy-and-pasted sequences from previous entries. It’s worth pointing out that I’ve never had a fascination for either this franchise or dinosaurs in general. Heck, I didn’t see Jurassic Park until 2020, and that was because a local cinema programmed it to stay afloat during the COVID-19 drought, and I was going through withdrawals from not being in the theater for months. But even if these retreads hit all the right buttons for you, don’t you want more? Don’t you want to see at least an attempt at charting a new path? A better word than “rebirth” would have been “regurgitation.” Universal Pictures will release Jurassic World: Rebirth in theaters nationwide on July 02nd. More Reviews Primetime September 22, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Unabomber September 24, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Look Back September 16, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Elsinore September 14, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Hunter Friesen

Devotion November 19, 2022 By: Button Hunter Friesen There have been several instances of two nearly identical movies released questionably close to each other. 1998 saw both the A Bug’s Life/Antz and Armageddon/Deep Impact debacles, with the former winning out in each scenario. And 2013 had both Olympus Has Fallen and White House Down , with the former winning again as it gained two sequels in London Has Fallen and Angel Has Fallen . Now in 2022, we have Top Gun: Maverick and Devotion , two aviation-centered films that star Glen Powell and feature a sequence where one fighter pilot has to save his buddy after they crash land in a snowy forest. And just like all the other examples, the former (clearly) wins out in this case, with Maverick soaring high above the clouds while Devotion never gets off the ground. To give both movies the benefit of the doubt, their similarities in both plot and release dates are due to circumstances mostly outside of their control. Maverick was shot in 2019 and ready to go in early 2020, but was held for release until this summer on account of Tom Cruise’s insistence on a full-scale theatrical release (a bet that paid off in full as the film became the highest-grosser of the year and Cruise’s career at $1.5 billion). Devotion didn’t sit on the shelf as long, with filming taking place in early 2021 and normal visual effects work taking place afterward. And to Devotion’s credit again, its story is based on actual people and events during the Korean War, while Maverick is entirely fictional. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCDEGP6VjYY But the one thing that Maverick has (in spades) that Devotion doesn’t is a sense of energy and thrill. That unparalleled theatrical experience is why Maverick will likely outgross franchise blockbuster staples like Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Avatar: The Way of Water . Director J.D. Dillard doesn’t try to replicate that for Devotion , instead giving it a more dignified sense of importance through slower pacing and subtlety. It’s an admirable angle, at least on paper. But in execution, it strips the film of all forward momentum and makes the 138-minute runtime feel like 1380 minutes. Jonathan Majors stars as Jesse Brown, one of the only African-American aviators within the Navy. Jesse is the strong and silent type, mostly because he knows that standing up to anyone or lashing out in anger will destroy all his life’s work. Transferring in as his new wingman is Tom Hudner (Glen Powell, also an executive producer). The pair don’t become fast friends, but they do become brothers born in combat as they get shipped off to the frontlines of Korea as the threat of a third World War becomes evermore present. Like Dillard’s direction, Jack Crane and Jonathan Stewart’s stilted screenplay doesn’t play above the military tropes we’ve come to expect. There’s flyboy camaraderie, a racist bully, a mission with 1000/1 odds, and a spouse back at home getting teary-eyed as she reads letters on the front step. Majors and Powell do their best to inject a little life from time to time, but there’s nothing they can do to battle the mundanity of everything surrounding them. It’s hard to imagine who Devotion will fully satisfy. Enthusiasts of historical dramas (such as myself) will find it all too simplistic and clichéd; action junkies won’t walk away awed by the CGI-tainted flight set pieces, and Majors and Powell fans won’t get anything from their by-the-book characters. Just as the Korean War holds the moniker “America’s forgotten war,” Devotion will have to make do with being “America’s forgotten 2022 aviation film.” Sony Pictures Releasing will release Devotion in theaters nationwide on November 23rd. More Reviews Primetime September 22, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Unabomber September 24, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Look Back September 16, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Elsinore September 14, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Hunter Friesen

Mortal Kombat II May 6, 2026 By: Button Hunter Friesen With the opening studio logos presented almost identically to those in the games, Mortal Kombat II immediately announces itself as a film purely for the fans. It's not like they don't deserve it, as this franchise infamously became the poster child of scorn during the multi-decade period where Hollywood failed to adapt video games for the silver screen. With its entirely incoherent story and laughably bad special effects, the only purpose that 1997's Mortal Kombat: Annihilation will ever serve is as inspiration for anyone to make a better movie. That eventually became a reality with the 2021 reboot Mortal Kombat , although the exponential improvement in competence didn't lend itself to any memorable moments. Five years and an explosion of video game adaptations later, Mortal Kombat II continues on that same path, pitching everything so far down the middle that it's nearly impossible to find anything worth discussing, both for better and for worse. One thing that is for the better is that, after next to nothing happened in the previous film, everything happens here. But that's also for the worse, because the complete lack of setup makes this seemingly simple concept seem more complicated than it has any right to be. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZdC5mFHPldg In this universe, world domination isn't determined by sheer military strength. Instead, realms are represented by a handful of their strongest warriors. These warriors compete in a one-on-one fighting tournament, each fight being to the death. Once a realm reaches ten consecutive victories over another, they are granted the right to conquer (and I thought the best-of-seven series in most American league playoffs went on too long...). Equipped with an amulet of immortality and dark magic, Shao Khan has already enslaved several realms, and now he's set his sights on Earthrealm. It might be from the fact that we live in an age of increased militarization and the constant threat of everything being blown up in the blink of an eye at the hands of bumbling fools, but there is a strange sense of honor in seeing disputes being settled face-to-face. Then again, having billions of lives hanging in the balance on one fight isn't exactly a wager I'd feel comfortable with. But it's not like director Simon McQuoid or screenwriter Jeremy Slater ever really let our minds dwell on that fact, as this film is glaringly devoid of any sense of scale or scope. Background actors are kept to an absolute minimum, the sets are mostly just bland CGI backdrops, and most characters just stand around in one location between fight scenes. Smartly introduced as a shot of adrenaline after Lewis Tan's protagonist, Cole Young, sucked up all the energy in the previous film, is Johnny Cage (Karl Urban), a Jean-Claude Van Damme-inspired martial arts movie star. We're introduced to him through his most famous role in Citizen Cage , one of those '80s movies where every fight had to occur in an abandoned warehouse, and the hero always has a witty one-liner prepared. Having been passed over by influencers and YouTubers, the narcissistic and arrogant Cage gets a shot at redemption after the gods deem him worthy to defend Earthrealm from Shao Khan's challenge. He's joined by returning good guys Sonya Blade, Liu Kang, Jax, and Lord Raiden. Once past this initial setup, the rest of the film is a relentless combination of fights between characters on each side of good and evil. It's not exactly filmed well, with quick cutting and tame choreography keeping it all passable enough to watch. As every gamer knows, the real showstopper is the finishing fatalities inflicted upon the defeated opponent, their over-the-top gruesomeness being the subject of controversy and the need for a video game rating system. Some of the most iconic ones have been replicated here, such as a razor-brimmed hat being used like a chainsaw, and a character's head being smashed like a watermelon by a giant hammer. It's the kind of sickening violence that makes you feel morally gross, but you can't help but be entertained by it. Of course, you could get all that and much more by playing the games. But that would require more money than a movie ticket, and hours of dedication to learn the exact button combinations, something I have never been able to motivate myself to do beyond crouch kicks and the occasional projectile spam. This is a fully passable extension or mild introduction to the franchise, which almost automatically makes it the best cinematic rendition of it. Warner Bros. Pictures will release Mortal Kombat II in theaters nationwide on May 08th. More Reviews Primetime September 22, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Unabomber September 24, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Look Back September 16, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Elsinore September 14, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Hunter Friesen

Captain America: Brave New World February 12, 2025 By: Button Hunter Friesen In an age where every new property in the never-ending Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) is either going to restore or destroy the franchise, Captain America: Brave New World is a semi-comforting reminder that it’s okay for a movie to be just fine and forgettable. The keyboard warriors on either side of the fence will find little ammunition here, ushering in a brief period where comic-book movies are met with a collective shrug rather than an onslaught of verbal skirmishes. This all might be faint praise for a mega studio blockbuster with a rumored budget of anywhere between $250-300 million, but the bar was never that high to begin with. It’s not like all those extra tens of millions were put to good use anyway. The cutting room floor of the editor’s suite might be worth more than several other studio blockbusters combined, the 118-minute final runtime here clearly being a patchwork of several rounds of reshoots and reedits. Luckily, the generic sets and CGI backdrops were always available, but not the high-quality VFX technicians to work their magic and make it all seem remotely believable. They're probably all busy putting in overtime on The Fantastic Four: First Steps anyway. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pHDWnXmK7Y For the one fan out there who has 2008’s The Incredible Hulk , The Falcon and the Winter Soldier , and Eternals high on their MCU rankings, Brave New World is the sequel they’ve been dreaming of. Audiences need to be well-versed in both the film and television fronts of the MCU to fully grasp what’s going on here. General Thaddeus “Thunderbolt” Ross (previously played by the late William Hurt, now played by Harrison Ford) has become President Ross in one of “the most important elections in American history.” But unlike the outcome of our most recent real-life election, this president preaches togetherness amidst overcoming the horrors that have besieged the nation in the absence of the Avengers. His most important task is to unite the developed nations of the world in harnessing the potential of the Celestial Island, located in the Indian Ocean, after the events of Eternals . But like all political plans, they got mucked up by intrigue and people working in the shadows. Sam Wilson (Anthony Mackie), the new Captain America and former Falcon, finds himself caught in the crosshairs of the conspiracy, which is headed by a returning character from The Incredible Hulk . But fret not, any of you who don’t remember the specific details of a seventeen-year-old movie whose connection to the MCU is mostly just a trivia question, director Julius Onah and his four credited co-writers make sure to spell it all out in bold letters at every turn. Much of the dialogue is spent writing and erasing the whiteboard that is the film’s plot, which includes a copious amount of convenient newsreel interjections. It all coalesces into something that feels much more tailored for Disney+ rather than the big screen. Even if the character of Sam Wilson is small potatoes when compared to what’s been going on in the entire MCU, his personal dilemmas are interesting. The appeal of the icon that is Captain America lies in the fact that he is just an ordinary person who represents the best qualities of those who resist evil. Sure, he may have been injected with a super serum, but that’s nothing when compared to Hulk, Iron Man, and villains like Thanos and Ultron. The successes of Steve Rogers against all those disadvantages create a nearly impossible barrier for Sam to overcome. The bond between him and his new sidekick, Joaquin Torres (Danny Ramirez), is endearing as they both forge a new path together in a world that they’re not quite sure wants to embrace them. That sentiment goes double for Isaiah Bradley (Carl Lumbly), the forgotten Captain America from the Korean War who was betrayed by his government. The sum of these pieces isn’t as attractive as their individual values, making this more of a filler episode, biding time until we get the next seismic shift in the MCU. Nuggets of what that will be are dropped here and there, giving us all just enough optimism to keep getting back on this ride. Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures will release Captain America: Brave New World in theaters nationwide on February 14th. More Reviews Primetime September 22, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Unabomber September 24, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Look Back September 16, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Elsinore September 14, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Hunter Friesen

I Saw the TV Glow May 13, 2024 By: Button Hunter Friesen I couldn't tell what feelings I was experiencing while watching I Saw the TV Glow , but I can definitely tell you I was feeling something . There was terror, bewilderment, wonder, curiosity, nostalgia, and some sort of feeling of childhood innocence. And yet there was none of those things, at least in the forms I’d expected or had experienced before. I stared at the screen with the same hypnotized energy as the main characters watching their favorite show, The Pink Opaque . Was I liking what I was watching, and did it even make sense? I didn’t know then, and I still don’t know now. But I can’t get it out of my head, and that’s what’s most important. It all started in the late ‘90s, an era where the only things to watch were what was on TV at the time you were flipping through the channels. For seventh-grader Owen (played by Ian Foreman in the younger years, and Justice Smith when he’s older), everything is just a series of unmemorable images and noise. There’s something off about him, and it’s not just some childhood mood phase. He’s on a conveyor belt going through life, never interacting with anything or anyone. That is, until he stumbles upon a show called The Pink Opaque airing on the Young Adult Network (this movie’s version of The CW Network). It’s a Buffy-esque teen drama about two girls with psychic powers fighting a monster-of-the-week, with the big bad guy named Mr. Melancholy looming throughout the seasons. The show speaks to him, yet he doesn’t exactly know what it’s saying. He just knows that he can’t live without hearing it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kymDzCgPwj0 Writer/director Jane Schoenbrun understands the allure of a fictional piece of art to kids of a certain age. Every adolescent has some inner holes they feel like they need to fill, but don’t know how, and there’s nothing more powerful than plugging them with some special work that’s just your own. I could go into lengths about how much The Walking Dead meant to me as a 12-year-old middle schooler. Of course, millions of other people watched that show at its height, but the fact that I had to secretly watch it under the covers with my Kindle was something that made it mine. For Owen, The Pink Opaque is a show geared towards older kids that airs after his bedtime, meaning he has to sneak out of the house to watch it. There’s a thrill to the danger of being caught, and an indescribable satisfaction to the amount of work that needs to be done to get yourself in the right place at the right time. It’s the hidden price we pay through streaming, as everything feels just a little less special when you can have it whenever you want. Owen’s haven for the show is the home of Maddy (Brigette Lundy-Paine), a ninth-grader who’s probably the show’s biggest fan. The show acts as a coping mechanism as they deal with her abusive stepdad and the overall shittiness high schoolers direct toward those who don’t align with their rigid constructs of gender and sexuality. Despite their opposite sexualities, I Saw the TV Glow is a love story for Owen and Maddy, with Smith and Lundy-Paine wonderfully selling the sense of belonging they desire from each other. Those Saturday nights in Maddy’s basement were the only moments they had to be their true selves. Also mixed within this incredibly unique cocktail are some unsettling sequences and imagery. I know it’s a clichéd comparison to make, but there’s a Lynchian quality to all of it. This is not a horror movie, nor are there any scenes with the sole intention to scare you, yet some moments chilled me to the bone. Much of it comes from Schoenbrun’s willingness to keep everything understated and shrouded in mystery, even if the inability to provide clear answers leaves a little much left on the table. But it also comes with excellent production qualities within the film and the fictional show. The ‘90s low-budget aesthetic of The Pink Opaque is authentically recreated, with the creature design warranting the Oscar recognition that these types of films never get. Schoenbrun made their name with the 2021 feature We’re All Going to the World’s Fair , a seminal work on creepypastas and underground internet culture. While its release during the pandemic definitely enhanced its aspects of loneliness, it also caused it to be sucked into the vortex of obscurity like so many other independent projects. Thankfully, I Saw the TV Glow doesn’t have those dire circumstances swirling around it and is being handled by A24, meaning there’s no excuse not to check this out. A24 will release I Saw the TV Glow in select theaters on May 03rd, followed by a nationwide expansion on May 17th. More Reviews Primetime September 22, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Unabomber September 24, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Look Back September 16, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Elsinore September 14, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Hunter Friesen

Power Ballad May 27, 2026 By: Button Hunter Friesen Martin Scorsese has his gangsters, Steven Spielberg has his aliens, Guillermo del Toro has his monsters, Paul Schrader has his lonely men, Woody Allen has his neurotics, and Michael Mann has his criminals. They say to write what you know, a piece of instruction that many filmmakers have taken to heart throughout their careers. Of course, detours can always occur, but the road always leads back home sooner or later. And as much as we might decry their unoriginality, we wouldn’t have it any other way. Who else to tell these stories than those who know them best? Added to that list is Irish writer/director John Carney, the filmmaker who holds the title of being the world’s biggest folk music lover. He entered the scene with Once in 2007, a love story about two struggling musicians in Dublin. While a tiny production, the film won the Oscar for Best Original Song for “Falling Slowly.” 2013’s Begin Again shifted that story to America, with Keira Knightley playing a singer and Mark Ruffalo as a down-on-his-luck record executive. Another Oscar nomination would be earned for the song “Lost Stars.” He moved back to Dublin for Sing Street in 2016, which rode the indie circuit to enthusiastic reviews for its youthful exuberance. The two lands finally came together in 2023 with Flora and Son , starring American Joseph Gordon-Levitt alongside Eve Hewson in a Dublin-set story about a mother and musician coming together through song. His latest film, Power Ballad , more or less repeats that formula with a heavy “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” sort of attitude. American transplant Rick (Paul Rudd) earns his keep as a wedding singer for a cover band in Dublin (the boxes are already being checked). He came to the island over a decade ago as part of an up-and-coming band. Then he met Rachel, fell in love, and has remained across the pond ever since. For as much as the wedding guests love his renditions of the classics, Rick always feels like he’s going through the motions, never fully expressing himself as an artist. Every time he sneaks an original song into the playlist, the audience flatlines. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Um_WWbB8Tm0 During one of his performances, the bride and groom turn out to be best friends with the former boy band star Danny Wilson (Nick Jonas). Per their request, he performs alongside Rick, the pair instantly hitting it off to classic songs that inspired them to grab the microphone. Over some beers, Rick shares with Danny his song titled “How to Write a Song (Without You)," the titular ballad he wrote for his daughter years back and is most proud of. In this initial act, Carney displays his affection for the creative process, as well as the dogged pursuit it requires. When Rick is performing one of his songs for the wedding guests, the dozens of tuxedos and dresses quickly become tens of thousands of screaming fans packing a stadium. The camera swirls around him as he belts his heart out. It doesn’t matter that Rudd isn’t a particularly gifted singer; the emotional high he displays tells us all we need to know. As with all things, money eventually gets in the way. Stuck in a creative rut that hasn’t allowed his solo career to flourish, Danny decides to pass off Rick’s song as his own. It soon becomes a chart-topping hit, with Rick eventually hearing it over the loudspeaker in a store. His contentment with being a perpetually struggling musician is quickly replaced with anger and jealousy. Deep down, he always knew that his song was worth something. And now he’s hearing it, yet the credit is nowhere to be found. For as much as his act is clearly portrayed as wrong, Danny isn’t some malicious figure trying to scheme his way to the top. He respects the legends and puts pressure on himself to branch out creatively. But with money and large record labels behind him comes expectations, and the fact that any slip up could spell the end of his career. He needs to produce certified hits and be on magazine covers. Similar to Rudd’s singing ability, Jonas isn’t the strongest actor. But through smart casting and Carney’s direction, he fulfills the presence required of his character. There’s a tiny bit of tedium as the debate over the authorship of the song consumes the entire second half. Rick wrote the song, but Danny is the one who turned it into a hit. None of this is new ground for Carney, and there’s nothing too special about the filmmaking. It’s a lot of heart-to-heart conversations about the power of music, everything wrapped in a feel-good coating that will likely have you driving with the windows down on these nice summer nights. Lionsgate will release Power Ballad in select theaters on May 29th, followed by a nationwide expansion on June 05th. More Reviews Primetime September 22, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Unabomber September 24, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Look Back September 16, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Elsinore September 14, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Hunter Friesen

Final 2025 Oscar Nomination Predictions January 21, 2025 By: Hunter Friesen We’re finally here! After months of festivals, box office results, and precursor awards, it’s finally time to put the chips down on who will find themselves in the Academy’s good graces. Things are much more chaotic compared to last year, where you could place Oppenheimer , Killers of the Flower Moon , Poor Things , and Barbie into nearly every category and come out with a decent record. This all leads me to my most important lesson of Oscar prognosticating: You have to go in with the mindset that you’re going to get 25% of your predictions wrong. The top score over at GoldDerby for last year’s nominations was around 80%. I like to go in with the same mindset I have for golf; which is not to make the most great shots, but to make the least bad ones. A gutsy shot tends to backfire more than it succeeds, which doesn’t bode well in a game where every shot counts. What does that mean here? It means not trying to overcomplicate things, and focusing your attention only on what’s needed. Go with the logical picks that favor the probabilities, and only go out on a limb for something you really feel is going to hit. As a focus tool, I’ve devised each category into three levels of likelihood for a nomination: Locks, Safe, and Shaky. Here’s a breakdown of how those categories are defined: Locks are virtually guaranteed to get a nomination. They’re more focused on winning the Oscar, with the nomination only being a formality. The only time you should spend on them is what it takes to write their names down on your predictions. A lock being snubbed is cause for headlines, and that’s something you can’t predict. Safes seem very likely to happen, and a snub would be a major talking point. They’ve hit pretty much every precursor they could, and have displayed support from the voting body. But there might be a hiccup in their campaign or a nagging feeling that there’s reason for doubt. Someone like Viola Davis in The Woman King fits this description. She was nominated at every precursor and is a titan in the industry. But the film just wasn’t landing in other categories, which led her to lose steam. Shaky is where you find a group of people fighting for those spots. They’ve hit some places and missed others, or their work goes against what the branch tends to favor. They might also have legitimate reasons for being a surprise nomination or a not-so-surprising snub. Something I’ve leaned away from in recent years is stats. There are just way too many variables at play: voter demographics, voter quantity, precursors influence, Academy rules, cultural sentiment, etc. It’s like debating if Magic Johnson or Steph Curry had a better NBA career. How can you compare two players who played in totally different eras and wildly different styles of play? Stats are helpful in some cases, but they should rarely be used as the primary justification for a prediction. As a matter of transparency, I will not be predicting the three short categories: Live-Action Short, Animated Short, and Documentary Short. It’s a fool’s errand to try and provide analysis for a category where I’ve seen none of the contenders and has no precursors to guide the way. I’ll just be going with the GoldDerby consensus. Without further ado, let’s get started! Best Picture Locks Conclave Emilia Pérez The Brutalist Anora Wicked Safe A Complete Unknown The Substance Dune: Part Two Shaky A Real Pain Nickel Boys Sing Sing has exemplified the "we're so back / we're so cooked" theme all season. It's done well at the smaller bodies, only to slip up once the lights get brighter. But it still has nominations for Adapted Screenplay and Lead Actor locked up, which lends just enough support to it holding on. But that PGA nomination for A Real Pain was a huge shot in the arm to go along with Kieran Culkin’s dominance, and Nickel Boys is still one of the most acclaimed films of the year. Unfortunately, I have to kick Sing Sing out, something I didn’t think was possible as I had it as a potential Best Picture winner just a few months ago. Best Director Locks Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) Safe Sean Baker (Anora) Edward Berger (Conclave) Shaky Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) The director’s branch of the Academy is only rivaled by the Documentary Feature branch in terms of being insular and having its own rules of who gets in and who doesn’t. It’s one of the few categories where you can semi-logically predict a snub for someone who has hit every precursor, or a surprise nomination for someone who hasn’t appeared anywhere else. Although Edward Berger didn't make it in for All Quiet on the Western Front despite that film's overwhelming dominance, he's firmly been promoted from outsider status and has an even bigger Best Picture contender with Conclave . The last spot seems to be between Coralie Fargeat and RaMell Ross, with the former having both the stats (GG, CCA, and BAFTA nominations) and momentum to back her up. Ross may not have either of those, but what he accomplishes in Nickel Boys is exactly the type of auteur-driven work that this branch admires. He would be following in the footsteps of Ruben Östlund and Jonathan Glazer, both of which got in when the stats said that they should be counted out. Best Original Screenplay Locks Anora (Sean Baker) The Brutalist (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold) A Real Pain (Jesse Eisenberg) Safe The Substance (Coralie Fargeat) Shaky September 5 (Tim Fehlbaum & Moritz Binder) We likely have three films vying for one final slot: All We Imagine as Light , Hard Truths , and September 5 . The PGA nomination for September 5 illustrated that it has the most legitimate shot at a Best Picture nomination of the trio, which pretty much gets it in by default. I would have had a tougher time choosing it over All We Imagine as Light if Payal Kapadia’s film hadn’t had such an unexpectedly lackluster at the BAFTA nominations. Of course, I would not be surprised if Mike Leigh got in instead for Hard Truths , which would be his sixth career nomination in the category. But he wasn't even longlisted by his hometown BAFTA, putting a big dent in those hopes. Best Adapted Screenplay Locks Conclave (Peter Straughn) Safe Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard) A Complete Unknown (James Mangold & Jay Cocks) Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes) Sing Sing (Greg Kwedar & Clint Bentley) It’s been a bit of a struggle to predict the other four nominees who will eventually lose to Conclave . As I mentioned in the Best Picture category, I had Sing Sing as a cinch to win here a couple of months ago, and now I’m wondering if it stays in. Granted, there isn’t that much competition for the final slot, so I might as well see it all the way through. Best Lead Actor Locks Adrian Brody (The Brutalist) Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) Safe Daniel Craig (Queer) We've been working with the same group of five men for months now. None of them have wavered, even when they were supposed to (Craig making it in at SAG was truly shocking). Sebastian Stan is the next closest contender, but for which film? The Apprentice did well at BAFTA, and he just won a Golden Globe for his performance in A Different Man . With that kind of intense vote splitting, it's hard for me to make a case for him. Best Lead Actress Locks Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) Mikey Madison (Anora) Demi Moore (The Substance) Shaky Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) While the leading men have been sitting comfortably for months, the leading ladies have been thrown into chaos at every precursor. It feels like we've settled on a pretty sturdy set of four nominees, with that last slot being a bloodbath. There have only been two instances in the entire history of the Golden Globes where the winner of Best Lead Actress - Drama wasn't nominated at the Oscars. The first was because of a three-way tie in 1988 between Jodie Foster, Shirley MacLaine, and Sigourney Weaver (MacLaine was not Oscar-nominated), and the second was in 2008 when Kate Winslet won the Globe for Revolutionary Road, only for her to be nominated (and eventually) win in lead at the Oscar for The Reader . This year's winner, Fernanda Torres, gave a wonderful speech and appeared in a beloved movie with many passionate fans. She's still in the bubble because the Globes have been the only place she's shown up at, not even being longlisted by BAFTA. On the other hand, the Globes have been the only place that Marianne Jean-Baptiste has missed (she technically missed SAG, but that was never going to happen), which includes a historic trifecta of victories at NYFCC, LAFCA, and NSFC. Whoever misses between them, it's going to be unprecedented. And even with all that being said, there are still heavyweights like Nicole Kidman and Angelina Jolie. Neither of them has performed that well throughout the precursors, but you can never fully write them off. Best Supporting Actor Locks Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) Safe Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) Shaky Yura Borisov (Anora) Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) Similar to the Best Adapted Screenplay, we're finding four other nominees who will eventually lose to Kieran Culkin. Denzel Washington can get in on name alone (looking at you Roman J. Israel, Esq. ), but his miss at SAG was a little puzzling, and BAFTA was never going to help him (he’s still yet to receive a single acting nomination from them). The ascendancy of Yura Borisov has been one of the biggest stories of the season, and he's gotten in everywhere he could at this point. And then there’s Jeremy Strong, who found his way in after getting both a SAG and BAFTA nomination right as Oscar voting was starting. Best Supporting Actress Locks Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) Ariana Grande (Wicked) Safe Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) Shaky Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl) This is the toughest acting category to predict, with Saldaña and Grande being the only names that will appear on everyone's prediction sheets. Isabella Rossellini feels pretty safe for Conclave . Her missing SAG wasn't great, but she's an industry legend, has enough other precursor support, and appears in a big Best Picture player. The same can be said for Felicity Jones (minus the legend part). I've leaned into The Substance in every other above-the-line category, but Margaret Qualley just hasn’t shown up where she’s needed to. She’s been losing lately to Jamie Lee Curtis, who we’ve learned is one of the most beloved figures in Hollywood. And she’s an excellent campaigner, so good that I just can’t bet against her. Danielle Deadwyler would also make a lot of sense after her SAG revitalization. But we already went down this road with her a few years ago for Till. Could we see a repeat, or will voters make sure this doesn't happen again? Best Cinematography Locks The Brutalist Safe Nosferatu Shaky Conclave Dune: Part Two Maria Last year’s nomination for El Conde showed that Edward Lachmann only needs an ASC nomination to have a legitimate chance of breaking into this category, which bodes well for Maria . The rest of this lineup appeared at both the BAFTA and ASC nominations, pretty much securing their spot here. We’ve known for a while that this branch has a fetish for black-and-white, so I wouldn’t be surprised if The Girl with the Needle were to sneak in. Best Film Editing Locks Conclave Safe Emilia Pérez Anora Shaky Dune: Part Two September 5 Although this category tends to be filled with top-tier Best Picture contenders, The Brutalist finds itself on the outside looking in because of its startling omissions from ACE and BAFTA. It could still get in based on pedigree, pushing out fringe contenders like Dune: Part Two and September 5 . And then there are even films like Challengers and The Substance that showed up at ACE. Best Original Score Locks The Brutalist Conclave Emilia Pérez Safe The Wild Robot Shaky Challengers It's only been a few years since Justin Hurwitz won the Golden Globe Award for Original Score for First Man , only to be totally snubbed by the Oscars. That means this year's winners Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross ( Challengers ) can't go into nomination morning feeling confident, especially since they were also not longlisted by BAFTA. But they're aided by the fact that there isn't a clear alternative to them. If it had to be someone, I'd look out for branch favorite Alberto Iglesias, who scored Pedro Almodóvar's The Room Next Door and was nominated for their previous collaboration for Parallel Mothers . Best Original Song Locks El Mal (Emilia Pérez) Mi Camino (Emilia Pérez) Kiss the Sky (The Wild Robot) Safe The Journey (The Six Triple Eight) Shaky Harper and Will Go West (Will & Harper) There are three things that are certain in life: Death, taxes, and Diane Warren getting an Oscar nomination. She's on 15 career nominations… with no wins. The Six Triple Eight is a blockbuster compared to the films she's gotten nominated for over the past few years (has anyone watched Tell It Like a Woman?). "Compress/Repress" got in at both the Golden Globes and CCA, so it would make sense to have it take that last slot. But I’m going to throw a bit of a curveball in the form of a documentary song, which this branch tends to favor. Best Sound Locks Dune: Part Two Wicked Emilia Pérez Safe A Complete Unknown Shaky Alien: Romulus Alien: Romulus was shortlisted in quite a few categories, so it would make sense for it to get a nomination somewhere. We had left-field nominees last year in the form of The Creator and Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One . They pushed out expected contender Napoleon , which I think will happen again for Ridley Scott and Gladiator II . Best Production Design Locks Wicked The Brutalist Dune: Part Two Safe A Complete Unknown Nosferatu While it’s hard to glean much information from the Art Directors Guild nominations due to the many categories they employ, the combination of it with the CCA and BAFTA paints a pretty accurate picture. Of course, films like Conclave and Gladiator II are just as likely to make it in, so it’s hard to be fully convinced that this will be the final five. Best Costume Design Locks Wicked Dune: Part Two Shaky Conclave Nosferatu A Complete Unknown Wicked , Dune: Part Two , and Nosferatu were all mentioned by CCA, BAFTA, and the Costume Designers Guild. That leaves two spots left, which I’m giving to the surging A Complete Unknown and heavyweight player Conclave , both netting BAFTA nominations at the exact moment for them to translate to the Oscars. Best Makeup & Hairstyling Locks The Substance Wicked Safe Beetlejuice Beetlejuice Shaky A Different Man Emilia Pérez While most craft categories have steadily given more advantages to Best Picture players over the years, this category isn't afraid to be different. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and A Different Man have highly visible work and were well represented across the various categories at the Make-Up Artists & Hair Stylists Guild. Also mentioned was Emilia Pérez , which continued a trend of that film getting mentions where you wouldn't immediately expect it to. Surprisingly, Nosferatu didn't receive a single nomination by the group, although that might have been largely due to timing as the film was released two weeks after the nominations were announced. Regardless, the aversion this branch has to horror makeup makes me hesitant to think it will get in. Best Visual Effects Locks Dune: Part Two Wicked Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Safe Better Man Shaky Alien: Romulus Between Wicked , Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes , Better Man , and Gladiator II , 2024 was the year of the monkey. Being a Best Picture juggernaut secures Wicked 's spot, as does the overall strength of the Planet of the Apes series for Kingdom . Better Man features some extremely impressive work that is intertwined with the DNA of the film, so I think it stands a good chance. Gladiator II definitely had the highest quantity of effects of the bunch, but there were (valid) complaints that they weren't very good, leaving a spot open for something like Alien: Romulus . Best Animated Feature Locks The Wild Robot Flow Safe Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl Inside Out 2 Memoir of a Snail There hasn't been any movement within this category for months now, and no clear alternatives that could make a case for a surprise nomination. It's best to just set it and forget it, as there are so many more fish to fry. Best International Feature Locks Emilia Pérez (France) I'm Still Here (Brazil) Safe The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany) Shaky The Girl with the Needle (Denmark) Vermiglio (Italy) I've held onto these five titles for a while now, so I might as well stay the course and go down with the ship. The Girl with the Needle and Vermiglio performed very well at the European Film Awards and other industry precursors (both nominated at the Golden Globes and longlisted by BAFTA). Of course, so many films with pedigree and good stats have found themselves snubbed (I'm still crying about Decision to Leave ). I'll be on the lookout for Kneecap , which had a great showing at BAFTA and BIFA. Best Documentary Feature Safe No Other Land Sugarcane Shaky Black Box Diaries Daughters Will & Harper The absence of Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story on the shortlist illustrated yet another example of this branch's distaste for celebrity bio docs. While not exactly cut from the same cloth, one could assume that Will & Harper might suffer the same fate when it comes time to select the final five nominees. But the buzz has been great for the film, and it does much more than puff up a famous figure, so I think it squeaks in. The rest of the lineup is filled with more traditional contenders, with something like Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat being an alternate pick. More Reviews Primetime September 22, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Unabomber September 24, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Look Back September 16, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen Elsinore September 14, 2026 By: Hunter Friesen