Welcome to an ongoing series where I cover the 2026/2027 awards season. On a regular basis, I will update my Oscar predictions, taking into account the new information that has been received since the last update. Full predictions in every category can be found on the Home and Awards page.

Releases like Coyote vs. Acme and The Dog Stars in the doldrums of August mean only one thing: Summer movie season is over and fall festival season is upon us. Studios put away their box office charts for just a few months, instead focusing on the glitz and glamour of awards. Anyone can make a great film, but only a few can successfully spin it into a months-long worldwide campaign to become the best of the best.

Of course, this is all silly, pitting movies against each other in the name of shiny trophies. But in an age where movies feel a little more endangered with each passing year, I’ll take some competition to prove how much we care about this medium.

Just before the festival season is kicked off with the one-two-three punch of the Venice International Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, and Toronto International Film Festival, I’ve come up with my first complete Oscar predictions. I’ve done some serious research into narratives and statistics to come up with this crop. I realize that’s like picking a stock based on past performance, something that’s warned against in the last second of all those investment advertisements. But we all need something to trick ourselves into thinking we know how the chips will land, and this is where I’ve decided to hedge my bet.

Since the ten films nominated for Best Motion Picture have increasingly comprised the other categories, I figured I should just stick to that for now. It’s the easiest way to cover every base and provide some analysis for my picks, which I’ve ranked in order of confidence. At the end, there will be a smattering of talk about some of the films I think are just on the outside right now.

This year’s field has a little bit of everything: huge blockbusters, auteur international films, midbudget star vehicles, and inspirational indies. Now we’ve just got to wait, watch, and see how far they can truly go!

1. The Odyssey

What else is there left to say about Christopher Nolan’s mythological epic? Just like with Oppenheimer, Nolan has dominated the awards conversation so far and put himself (and the film) in the lead in so many categories, leaving everyone else at the fall festivals playing catch-up. Even with a probable three acting nominations and heavyweight status in every craft category, it’s unlikely the film will tie the total nominations record set by Sinners last year, as its original song doesn’t seem to have the hype. Then again, the only certainty in that category is Diane Warren for whatever film she has each year, so anything is possible. Universal does need to be wary for Best Makeup & Hairstyling, as that category tends to go its own way, and several makeup-forward films this year have more prominent work.

2. La Bola Negra

The academy’s tastes continue to become more international, with the Cannes Film Festival being the preferred supplier for that demand. As evidenced by this list, Cannes has joined previously established festivals like Venice and Telluride in its ability to premiere multiple Best Picture nominees in a single year. Coming out of the festival with enthusiastic buzz was La Bola Negra from Javier Ambrosi and Javier Calvo, commonly known as Los Javis. Many claimed it to be a surefire Oscar contender upon first sight, with it likely about to make a big splash once it reaches North America at Telluride and Toronto.

Netflix has shown a knack for racking up nominations each year, with their top contender earning an average of ten. Almost every Best Picture nominee out of Cannes has received corresponding nominations in the directing, writing, and acting categories. The first two seem locked already, but I’m still not sure what the acting plays will be. I won’t be surprised if the chatter coalesces around a few names as the film tours the states.

3. Wild Horse Nine

Despite last year being a complete bust with the trio of Rental Family, The Testament of Ann Lee, and Is This Thing On? (all good films, by the way), Searchlight Pictures is one of the most skilled awards distributors. This year, they’ve got their golden goose in Martin McDonagh, currently on a major hot streak with Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Banshees of Inisherin. Both of those premiered at Venice, followed by a splashy showing at TIFF. This year, that route has added a middle stop in Telluride, a sign that the Colorado-based festival doesn’t want to miss out on the fun for a third time, and/or this film has got something special up its sleeve.

Those two McDonagh films received a combined seven acting nominations, including two wins for the former. I’m keeping the streak alive by predicting four here, with John Malkovich potentially finding the narrative of being an overdue legend. McDonagh did technically win an Oscar twenty years ago for Best Short Film, Live Action. But with all due respect to that category and its past and future recipients, that doesn’t really count in the grand scheme of things. Searchlight will be drumming up his overdue narrative as well, where I think a win for Best Original Screenplay would satisfy everyone involved.

4. Dune: Part Three

Despite similar-ish reviews, Dune: Part Two received half the nominations of the first film. And between those total nominations, none were for Denis Villeneuve’s direction or the performances from the cast, signalling that people treat these films solely as a crafts showcase. That’s not a bad place to be considering that this franchise has won about every craft category so far.

Lots of goodwill has been built up over the past two installments, and this supposed trilogy capper has immense hype around it. If Denis does pull this off, I see a total nomination haul somewhere in the high single digits. An expected category or two could be missed because of voter fatigue or competition from other blockbusters. Warner Bros. is averaging around nine nominations for each of their Best Picture nominees (One Battle After Another and Sinners raised that bar last year). A splashy end-of-year marketing campaign at the right time could be what it takes to push this film into becoming a serious contender for the above-the-line categories.

5. Fjord

Next to the TIFF People’s Choice Award, the Palme d’Or at Cannes has become a bellwether for Oscar glory. Parasite, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, and Anora have begun their campaigns with the golden laurels upon the French Riviera. Those films have also all been released domestically by Neon in the early weeks of October after a fall festival tour, and then received directing, writing, and acting nominations (except for Parasite).

Fjord will be replicating that exact strategy, with Cristian Mungiu fitting the bill of a highly respected international auteur finally getting his due. He also gets bonus points for being European, as he’ll qualify for the increasingly influential European Film Awards and be given better treatment by BAFTA voters. His only trouble is if La Bola Negra will steal his thunder at those same ceremonies, as well as the domestic critics' groups earlier in the season.

6. The Debut

A24 always has a big dog in the race. This year’s candidate seems to be The Debut, premiering at Telluride, a festival that unveils about two Best Picture nominees per year. Although writer/director Jesse Eisenberg just missed out on a Best Picture nomination for A Real Pain, he did net a win for Kieran Culkin in the Best Supporting Actor category. That’s very good news for Paul Giamatti this year, who was seemingly runner-up to Cillian Murphy in Best Lead Actor just a few years ago. And Julianne Moore has the pedigree to be worthy of a second Oscar, especially in a thinner field such as this. The film will be playing above-the-line primarily, so a hot start at the prominent critics' organizations will be necessary.

7. Project Hail Mary

In terms of marrying box office with critical acclaim, Project Hail Mary was the champion throughout the first half of the year. That’s good because voters are getting a little better at memory retention for films released several months before voting starts. Amazon MGM is a bad awards campaigner, either crashing films altogether or just scraping by the skin of their teeth. But they haven’t had a certified crowdpleaser like this heading into the season, so that should make the campaign significantly easier.

I’m currently feeling bullish on Ryan Gosling making it in. He seems like an early favorite for the Golden Globe Award for Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy, will be better received by the populist SAG voters, and could make it in at Critics Choice due to their expanded nominee list. I am slightly contradicting my confidence by not also predicting a nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay. But that category has been weird over the years, giving the cold shoulder to big films like Killers of the Flower Moon and Dune: Part Two.

8. All of a Sudden

In the expanded era, no director who has previously taken the Cannes path to Best Picture has been able to replicate that success. By that theory, I would be foolish to expect Ryūsuke Hamaguchi to not only match his haul from Drive My Car, but improve on it with acting nominations. Crazier things have happened, and All of a Sudden could leapfrog into becoming Neon’s best contender should the political coldness of Fjord turn people away. The female acting categories are also weaker this year, giving more credence to Virginie Efira and Tao Okamoto using their joint Best Actress prize from Cannes to launch them into the race.

The challenge will be getting voters to commit to seeing a 196-minute film primarily set in a nursing home. But with Hamaguchi becoming a relative star on the arthouse/awards scene and the glowing reviews, I think that’s an easy enough hurdle to clear.

9. Elsinore

Since 2021, Focus Features has debuted four films at the Telluride Film Festival that have gone on to be nominated for Best Picture: Belfast, The Holdovers, Conclave, and Hamnet. Each scored several above-the-line nominations and fit a certain sensibility that matches well with both American and European sensibilities.

Elsinore perfectly fits those criteria this year, arriving with immense buzz for Andrew Scott’s lead performance. There’s also industry favorite Olivia Colman in a supporting role. The film will also play at TIFF during Focus’ preferred midfestival slot, making it a serious contender for the People’s Choice Award. I’m predicting that to happen, and that being the start of this breakout contender.

10. Ink

Bringing up the rear is another Netflix product, one they scooped up the rights for once the film was locked to be hitting the trifecta of Venice, Telluride, and TIFF. The steamer is more than capable of racing multiple forces, and the source material is widely acclaimed. I trust Danny Boyle to liven it up, with Guy Pearce potentially getting an afterglow nomination from The Brutalist as another business tycoon.

Netflix campaigns hard and fast, which in turn means some of their films burn bright and die fast. This one will have to maintain its moments in the three-month gap between the festival premiere and the public release. Luckily, it’s opening Venice, so we’ll know in a few days if it has the goods to accomplish that task.

Other Contenders

Of course, this predicted lineup will surely not be what the final nominees look like. There are just as many films just outside of my lineup that have as strong a chance. One of them is Werwulf, which will reap the rewards sown by Nosferatu. It likely won’t have the same box office success due to its folk horror weirdness and lack of brand value compared to the iconic vampire. But the goodwill Eggers continues to build through his excellent craftsmanship will likely have his new film repeat the same nomination haul.

There’s also Digger, which I’ve completely soured on once Warner Bros. released the trailer. Alejandro G. Iñárritu is a filmmaker whose style can grate on an audience to the bone when it doesn’t work, and the smugness displayed here elicits no sympathy from me. The 100 million-plus budget is unlikely to be recouped, causing a trail of articles headlining its box office underperformance to stunt its awards chances. Of course, none of that really stopped a similarly satirical filmmaker in Adam McKay with Vice and Don’t Look Up, and Iñárritu has been even more beloved in the past. I await with bated breath.

At the end of the day, everything is written in pencil… except for most of the nominations for The Odyssey. The bloodbath of the fall festival generates some clear winners and losers, so this list will be heavily readjusted in the coming weeks. Luckily, I’ll be attending TIFF again this year, so I’ll be able to offer a first-hand opinion for many of these contenders in my next update.